Only achievable by tight integration into terrestrial networks a new report from Euroconsult reckons
If satellite operators could widen their trajectory the non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellite constellation will have a market value $30 billion by 2030, according to Satellite Connectivity and Video Market, a new report by analyst Euroconsult.
The rise in market valuation was based on rising NGSO capacity in the next decade. In the supply based forecast NGSO accounts for 90 per cent of the new capacity expected in the next five years. Euroconsult’s figures show global capacity surging from 3.7Tbps in 2020 to 23Tbps in 2022. It is then projected to reach more than 50Tbps in 2026, on the condition that more constellations are put into service.
There is another caveat in the report. In order to meet those expectations, the satellite operators (SatOps) must fuse much tighter integrations with terrestrial networks, warned report author Dimitri Buchs, a senior consultant at Euroconsult.
“Digitisation will be the key to network convergence,” said Buchs. Unless this ‘smartification’ can improve network efficiency aspirations for new user applications and markets in underserved areas will be unattainable.
Market for connecting the unconnected
“NGSO constellations continue to gain momentum, as the past year’s new satellite orders and launches demonstrated,” said Nathan De Ruiter, MD of Euroconsult Canada. Starlink began commercial service and both OneWeb and Telesat Lightspeed secured additional investment, De Ruiter added.
The big market opportunity is in reaching the unconnected by reaching remote areas and people on the move, creating cellular backhaul and community hotspots. Much of this moveable target market comprises the 250,000 commercial vessels and aircraft that operate beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. Only 15 per cent of these currently use satellite for broadband connectivity.
Broadcasters will ditch satellite links
Meanwhile enterprise networks and consumer broadband will provide the main growth in demand in the next decade. Video distribution is being taken off satellite networks as cheaper methods of distribution emerge and 5G becomes an option. As compensation there is more money to be made from mobility. With the shipping and aeronautics industries demanding connectivity, revenues from satellite coms are projected to reach $3bn by 2030.
The report covers 13 world regions and reviews market trends for six segments: video distribution and contribution, cellular backhaul and trunking, enterprise networks, mobility, milsatcom and consumer broadband.