From Telecoms Europe Business and Technology Summit 2024 by Mobile Europe https://www.telecomseuropeevents.com/
With:
Moderator: Larbi Belkhit, Analyst,ABI Research
Ankush Saikia, Senior Manager, Network Strategy and Architecture, Three UK
Idir Fodil, SVP Strategy, Transformation and Performance, Orange
MTN Consulting has published an analysis of the demand for network infrastructure solutions – hardware, software, and services – in the telecoms as of mid-2024. It doesn’t make cheerful reading. MTN’s aim is to look at where spending might grow, the dynamics of vendors’ market share, and the strategies vendors should pursue in the current environment.
The vendors are trying to navigate their way through a landscape in turmoil. Last year vendors’ revenues for telco network infrastructure declined by 9.2% annually to $211.8 billion (€195.77 billion), marking the steepest drop at least since 2014.
MTN states this downturn reflects the completion of 5G buildouts in major markets like the US, China, and parts of Europe, after a period of intense investment. As telcos scale back spending amid economic slowdowns and high interest rates, they face capital constraints, intensifying the pressures on vendors
Geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and market access, prompting telcos to reevaluate relationships with vendors and ensure alignment with national security.
Cloudy conditions
The continuing rise of web-scale cloud providers – Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform and Azure – is transforming telecoms’ infrastructure through cloud migration, AI integration and advancing automation. The shifts pose both competitive threats and partnership opportunities for traditional vendors, according to MTN.
Cloud providers are also reshaping the vendors’ landscape by offering specialised cloud-based solutions for telecoms, although with modest market gains in the market so far. [Editor’s note: Microsoft has reduced its Azure for Operators efforts to chase the bigger opportunities in the AI market.]
Huawei toughs it out
Interestingly, despite the bans on Chinese equipment in many Western and other markets, the top three vendors for network infrastructure remain the same – see schematic above.
Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia have an aggregate market share totalling just under 38%, unchanged since 2022. This apparent stability disguises what MTN calls “significant market shifts”, sparked by the downturn in telco spending. They include consolidation among vendors, such as Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware, HPE acquiring Juniper and Nokia buying Infinera.
There is also a wave of operational restructuring underway and widespread lay-offs across the industry.
Open RAN – slow progress
Another notable shift is the push for the adoption of Open RAN by established vendors and telcos who are increasingly embracing open architectures, supported by substantial government investments.
Developments such as AT&T’s partnership with Ericsson and Deutsche Telekom’s collaboration with Nokia reflect growing momentum towards open, interoperable networks, albeit with integration challenges and slower-than-expected take up among brownfield operators.
Better in 2025?
Looking ahead, the vendor market faces a mixed outlook for 2024, with projected telco capex declining and ongoing economic pressures likely to dampen revenue prospects in the first half.
Regional developments in North America and Europe offer the potential for pockets of growth, driven by the expansion of broadband and regulatory shifts favouring non-Chinese vendors.
Even so, these development might not offset the first-half setbacks, but “substantial gains are projected [by MTN] from 2025 onward, indicating that although 2024 is likely to decline, it won’t be as severe as the year-on-year drop of 9.2% drop in 2023.
Corning, the fibre optic cable maker, has raised guidance for its Q2 revenues and expects to add $3 billion a year sales during the next three years
Corning says its second-quarter revenues will hit $3.6 billion, up from its previous guidance of $3.4 billion, driven by Generative AI (GenAI). Its Q2 earnings report will be on 30 July.
Wendell Weeks, Corning’s CEO and Chair for close to two decades, commented in a statement,“We expect second-quarter core sales to exceed our previous guidance and mark a return to year-over-year growth. The outperformance was primarily driven by the strong adoption of our new optical connectivity products for generative AI.
“These results reinforce our confidence in ‘Springboard’ – Corning’s plan to add more than $3bn in annualised sales in the next three years as cyclical factors and secular trends combine.”
Michael O’Day, CTO for Corning Optical Communications explained the need for more fibre in a Fiber Broadband Association’s (FBA) Fiber for Breakfast webinar last November.
Day said, “Many people may not realise that fibre plays a pivotal role inside a data centre” adding that AI is “moving super-fast, and that causes strain on building an AI network inside a data centre.”
Data centres must build a second layer of computing with many more fibre links, according to O’Day, who also claims that large language models (LLMs) will need up to five times more optical connectivity compared with today’s hyperscale architectures
Corning’s share price rose 12% on Monday and continued upwards to $44.04, making its market cap close to $38billion.
There were sighs of relief after the successful launch of Ariane 6 – the latest in Europe’s Ariane rocket series, taking over from Ariane 5 – but there is still plenty of work to do if Europe is going to win back business from SpaceX’s Falcon 9 series which is already scheduled for more than 140 launches this year.
As recently as the end of last month, Europe’s weather organisation Eumetsat announced it was moving the launch of its Meteosat Third Generation-Sounder 1 (MTG-S1) geostationary weather satellite from Arianespace to SpaceX – despite originally been expected to launch on an Ariane 6 on the rocket’s third launch around March 2025. Such a no confidence vote was a stark reminder of just how much work Arienespace and the ESA will need to do to get European launches back on track.
Ariane 6’s first commercial flight is not scheduled until the coming autumn and even then, Arianespace is talking about half a dozen launches next year and then 9-10 annually after that so the scale is a different magnitude to Falcon 9.
One great step for Europe
This inaugural flight, designated VA262, was a demonstration flight whose aim is to show the capabilities and prowess of Ariane 6 in escaping Earth’s gravity and operating in space. Ariane 6 features a modular and versatile design that can launch missions from low-Earth orbit and farther out into deep space. Nevertheless, this flight had several passengers on board.
At 21:06 BST, 22:06 CEST on 9 July, one hour after liftoff, the first set of satellites on board Ariane 6 were released from the upper stage and placed into an orbit 600 km above Earth. Satellites and experiments from various space agencies, companies, research institutes, universities and young professionals were included on this inaugural flight.
In addition to the rocket, the liftoff demonstrated the functioning of the launch pad and operations on the ground at Europe’s Spaceport. The new custom-built dedicated launch zone was built by France’s space agency CNES and allows for a faster turnover of Ariane launches.
“A completely new rocket is not launched often, and success is far from guaranteed. I am privileged to have witnessed this historic moment when Europe’s new generation of the Ariane family lifted off – successfully – effectively reinstating European access to space,” said ESA’s director general Josef Aschbacher. “Heartfelt thanks go to the teams at ESA, CNES, ArianeGroup and Arianespace for their hard work to get to this point. I also want to sincerely thank our Member States for having enabled and supported the Ariane 6 programme along the way. Not always easy, but the endurance shown has paid off handsomely today.”
“With this first successful launch by Ariane 6, Europe has finally recovered its capacity to access space. Beyond the great emotion I am feeling right now, my first thoughts are for all the teams in Kourou, Paris, Vernon, Les Mureaux, Toulouse, Bremen, Lampoldshausen, Liège, Barcelona, Colleferro, Zürich and everywhere else in Europe who made this success possible,” said CNES CEO Philippe Baptiste.
“I would like to acknowledge the commitment of the employees of CNES, ESA, ArianeGroup, Arianespace and our subcontractors. The last few months have been intense, and I would like to thank them all. Europe can be proud of its space programme, Europe can be proud of its knowledge and expertise. Together, let’s prepare the future of launchers and space,” he added.
Ariane 6 was built by prime contractor and design authority ArianeGroup. “With the successful first flight of Ariane 6, the European space industry has moved into a new era,” said Martin Sion, CEO of ArianeGroup. “The next flight models are already in production and the stages of the second model will be shipped to the Guiana Space Centre this autumn for the first commercial flight of Ariane 6.”
Tech demos, controlled deorbit and capsule separation
With the placement of satellites into orbit, Ariane 6 has demonstrated that it can successfully launch its payloads into space, but ground control has more in store for its inaugural flight. The engineers will further test Ariane 6’s upper stage to show again that Ariane 6 can restart its Vinci engine using the novel auxiliary propulsion unit. This restart capability will allow the launch vehicle to drop off multiple passengers into different orbits on future flights and deorbit itself through Earth’s atmosphere at the end of its mission, to ensure it does not become space debris.
On this flight the Ariane 6 upper stage is set to release two reentry capsules as it enters Earth’s atmosphere for a clean disposal to burn up harmlessly, leaving no space debris in orbit.
The next Ariane 6 is planned for launch this year on its first commercial flight under Arianespace as operator and launch service provider. “The success of this first flight marks the start of Ariane 6’s operational career, giving Europe an autonomous access to space,” added Stéphane Israël, CEO of Arianespace. “The new launcher’s order book is proof of the versatility of Ariane 6 and of its capacity to accomplish a wide range of missions into multiple orbits. It reflects the confidence that customers have in Ariane 6 for both their institutional and commercial missions. We are eager to begin operating our new launcher.”
Vodafone and Meta have collaborated to free up network capacity for all mobile customers, including allowing them to view more high-quality short videos. This network optimisation has been applied in 11 European markets since the start of June this year.
In an initial three-week test conducted in the UK in April 2024, the companies recorded “a meaningful reduction” in network traffic for Meta applications across Vodafone’s mobile network. In particular, Vodafone freed up network resources on some of its most popular 4G/5G sites benefiting all of the network’s users at these busy locations, such as shopping centres and transport hubs.
The two companies are open to working with “all players in the ecosystem to improve the efficient use of network resources”.
Alberto Ripepi, Chief Network Officer at Vodafone, said, “Meta’s willingness to optimise the delivery of video for its applications leads the way for a more efficient use of existing network resources. Vodafone and Meta have implemented these optimisations across Vodafone’s European markets and intend to continue collaborating to foster additional efficiencies.”
Meta intends to build on efforts to improve optimisation and efficiency through improvements in video engineering and deployment of infrastructure, to boost users’ experience and the efficiency of video applications.
Gaya Nagarajan, Vice-President of Network Engineering at Meta, stated, “Our relationship with Vodafone is a long-term partnership, and collaboration on video optimisation is an opportunity to drive innovation and shape the future of the internet. We are committed to continuing our collaboration with innovative partners like Vodafone, device manufacturers, equipment vendors and the wider digital ecosystem, to push the boundaries of video optimisation.”
From today, EE’s pay monthly customers can subscribe to a new service, Scam Guard for a £1 a month. It is designed to protect its consumer customers from scams and online threats. This includes against potentially fraudulent calls, data and online activity.
EE is the most biggest network provider in the UK, with over 22% of consumers, according to U-switch. The mobile operator’s website says, “EE is one of the UK’s largest subscription businesses, serving 25 million customers, backed by the UK’s fastest mobile network, and offering superfast connections in more places than any other mobile provider.”
All generations are potential targets. EE blocks around 15 million suspicious calls and texts every month and blocked more than 84 million attempted scams in the first six months of 2024, twice the number in the same period last year.
Scam Guard labels possible spam and scams as just that (see above) using AI from Hiya that analyses all aspects of every call in real time to identify those that are suspicious. An early(ish) example of AI providing new revenue streams for operators?
Some 40% of crimes committed in the UK are fraud based and 96% of all phone users regularly suffer nuisance calls. A study from Hiya found that 16% of UK consumers reported losing money to a phone scam in the last year, with those who were scammed losing £632 on average.
Scam Guard also monitors the dark web and alerts subscribers if their personal information, like bank card details and email login info, is found and provides details of breaches and tips for securing personal info.
The subscription offers free Cyber Security Duo from Norton for three months for those signing up now which provides real-time protection for up to two devices against viruses, malware, online threats and provides tools for stronger password creation and social media security.
It identifies unsafe texts with links, personal information monitoring on the dark web and protection of social media accounts. On average Norton blocks nearly 250,000 attacks every day in the UK.
Norton found that 72% of UK adults don’t understand how the dark web works, and 40% have never heard of a dark web monitoring service to see if their personal information is on the dark web. Hence Scam Guard seeks to educate as well eliminate threats.
Helen Burrows, Policy Director for BT said: “Our investment in Scam Guard is something we are all incredibly proud of. We truly believe it will make a significant contribution to the prevention of scams and fraudsters.
“EE was a founding member of Stop Scams UK, and part of a cross-industry alliance to share intelligence on scams. We also employ security experts and network-level security to safeguard our network and customers from cyber-attacks. This is something we take seriously, and while we already block an impressive number of scams, there is always more that we can do. Scam Guard covers all bases so customers can feel safer on our network.”
Scam Guard is now available to all EE pay monthly mobile customers and will be available to purchase as an add on. Dark Web Monitoring and access to free Cyber Security Duo for three months can only be activated by the account holder. For more information go to https://ee.co.uk/security/scam-guard.
GFiber Labs has successfully tested 50Gbps broadband speeds over its live fibre network in Kansas City. The operator has already upgraded its network to XGS-PON wherever possible, enabling 8Gbps speeds and above in all its cities and is working to deploy Nokia 25G PON in all of our markets by the end of the year, so that the operator can extend access to GFiber Lab’s 20 Gig plan.
“We already have customers putting this new level of service to the test in North Carolina’s Triangle, and we’re adding new customers to the early access program in select markets,” said Google Fiber senior director, product & billing Liz Hsu (above). “50G PON has the advantage of co-existing with XGS-PON and 25G PON to make the technology transition easier, which may make it the solution for the future.”
“We have committed to pursuing speeds of 100G and beyond,” she said. “Today is a step in that direction, in close collaboration with Nokia, we are, for the first time in the United States, testing 50G on our live network in Kansas City…There are plenty of other areas that we are looking at including the in-home experience or advanced content experiences, as well as using AI to identify and solve problems in our network before they even occur.”
This live network demonstration of 50G PON technology shows how operators can use Nokia’s Lightspan MF fibre access platform to upgrade their fibre networks to meet growing demand. Nokia points out there are more than 12 operators around the world who are already gaining the benefits of 25G PON, and the ecosystem is maturing with more than 5 ONT vendors bringing 25G PON solutions to the market.
Some operators currently deploying 25G PON include Google Fiber, EPB, Vodafone Qatar and OGI. The vendor believes the ecosystem for 25G PON is mature, with more than 60 operators, system vendors, chipset, and optical suppliers part of an MSA focused on standardizing and accelerating the technology.
In April, Nokia worked with Australian government-owned wholesaler NBN Co to demonstrate 10G, 25G, 50G and 100G broadband speeds over its existing fibre network. The trial showed how operators can enhance 10G PON to symmetrical 25G PON and eventually evolve to 50G PON or 100G using the same passive and active fibre components. Nokia points out it is a key contributor to 50G PON industry standard and introduced the industry’s first true 50G platform in 2020 with the Lightspan MF platform. Once the 50G PON industry matures, the step to 100G is “straightforward”, according to the company.
“Service providers need to be able to select the right technology, based on their needs and business case,” said Nokia vice president of broadband networks Geert Heyninck. “It is why we already offer 10G and 25G today, are trialing 50G, and developing 100G – ultimately leading to a full range of PON technologies that can be mixed and matched on the same platform and the same fibre. Our expansive toolkit of fibre solutions allows Google Fiber to future-proof their network and flexibly address their evolving network demands.”
Leveraging Nokia’s fibre solution, Google Fiber was able to simultaneously run 10/25G PON along with 25/50G PON broadband service over its fibre network. “This test with Nokia builds on the 25G PON deployment we announced together last year, paving the way for future improvements to our network that enhance customer experience in terms of speed, reliability, innovation and support for future business cases that have yet to be defined,” said Hsu.
Vodafone Portugal’s desire to expand by acquiring Nowo Communications for a modest €150 million has been blocked by the country’s regulator, the Autoridade da Concorrência (AdC).
Nowo Communications, formerly known as Cabovisao, is the country’s fourth-largest operator. The AdC ruled against its acquisition by Vodafone after a protracted investigation. Vodafone announced its plans to acquire Nowo in 2022.
The regulator’s long report on why the acquisition would have been a bad thing boils down the finding that the combined entity would impede competition and harm consumers. Apparently Nowo acts as a brake on price increases by its three larger rivals – Vodafone, Nos and MEO, part of the beleaguered Altice Group (see below).
AdC attached particular importance to this during the ongoing cost of living crisis.
Vodafone combined with Nowo would still have been the second largest operator behind the incumbent MEO, formerly Portugal Telecom.
Vodafone isn’t the only one having a hard time getting a deal done in Portugal. Patrick Drahi, who controls the Altice Group, has been trying to sell MEO for more than a year to help pay off the group’s €60 billion or so debt, acquired when Drahi was building his empire and money was cheap.
It has been reported that the Saudi operator group stc and Xavier Niel’s Iliad Group were the last two potential bidders, with stc seen as the frontrunner, reportedly prepared to stump up €8 billion. However local media suggests that stc has pulled out of the bid as the two parties could not agree on terms.
Earlier this week, MEO signed a deal with Nokia to upgrade its RAN infrastructure.
These innovations emerge through collaboration, where shared technology, ideas and expertise yield mutual economic benefits and societal advancement.
However, many innovation efforts in the telecoms industry are hindered by siloed approaches, fragmentation and duplication. In addition, investment in innovation projects remains flat as the spend in other technology sectors soars.
The GSMA Foundry helps to address the widening innovation gap by providing a consolidated home of telco innovation – the go-to place to collaborate to develop commercially viable ideas at scale and pace with the key players in the industry.
Launched in 2021, the GSMA Foundry brings together organisations of all sizes to foster collaboration and innovation. Our mission is to pioneer new approaches and make lasting contributions to society, connecting everyone and everything to a better future. We aim to create a hub for cross-industry collaboration, welcoming all players to develop fresh solutions to industry challenges and unlock new use cases through commercial trials. The GSMA Foundry supports projects at all stages of development, from brand-new concepts to proven solutions needing regional or global scaling.
This first edition of the GSMA Foundry Mobile Innovation Report celebrates the successes to date – from transformative projects to strategic partnerships and how to get involved.
Collaboration in Practice
The GSMA Foundry has already demonstrated the power of collaborative innovation with several industry firsts. One notable project is the ‘5G – Enabling Enterprise Drones to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS)‘ initiative. This collaboration between Ericsson Drone Mobility, TDC NET and other ecosystem partners in Denmark developed a 5G-enabled communication infrastructure for UAS. This infrastructure ensures drones can stay consistently and securely connected to the TDC NET mobile network, enabling applications such as environmental inspections, precision farming and lifesaving supply deliveries.
Another example is the ‘Smart Agri – 5G Automated Farming Solutions‘ project by ZTE and China Mobile. They used 5G connectivity to automate rice production on 12,000 acres of marginal land near Da’an City, Jilin Province. The 5G-enabled farm management solution optimises the use of water, fertiliser, fuel and seeds, significantly reducing labour costs. The project has already yielded economic benefits of 3.3 million yuan (€450,000) through a 10% increase in output and savings in materials and labour costs, while the smart irrigation system uses 40% less water than conventional systems.
Encouraging Future Collaboration
We are currently supporting dozens of new projects, including ‘5G New Calling,’ set to revolutionise traditional voice and video call services with capabilities like Ultra HD, Intelligent, and Interactive video calling. This collaboration involves over ten members, including Ericsson, Huawei and Vivo.
Additionally, the GSMA Foundry and the European Space Agency (ESA) have partnered to enhance collaboration between mobile and satellite industries, accelerating innovation in integrating satellite communications with 5G and future 6G networks.
We encourage more companies to collaborate with the mobile community and contribute to the next wave of mobile innovations. For the remainder of 2024, we will focus on projects in 5G, Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN), Artificial Intelligence (AI), efficiency and monetisation. We invite anyone developing a relevant project to join us.
Submit your projects to the GSMA Foundry here.
MEO, part of the Altice Group and formerly Portugal Telecom, has signed a multi-year contract with Nokia to modernise operator’s RAN infrastructure and upgrade its 5G.
Under the contract, Nokia will supply equipment from its 5G AirScale portfolio which is based on its energy-efficient ReefShark System-on-Chip technology. This includes Massive MIMO, baseband and remote radio head solutions for both indoors and outdoors.
MEO will also deploy Nokia’s MantaRay self-organising network (SON) for optimisation and network assurance.
MEO will rely on Nokia’s Global Delivery Centre in Portugal for project delivery and support services. This collaboration will tap into the vendor’s talent pool, tools and operational capabilities. Nokia also has a 5G R&D facility in Portugal which the vendor says will benefit MEO.
José Pedro Nascimento, Chief Technology Officer at MEO, said, “As a market leader, we are committed to continuously improving our network and always providing the best experience for our customers…This modernisation will enable us to bring in exciting possibilities and generate new value for both individuals and businesses.”
Tommi Uitto, President of Mobile Networks at Nokia, added, “MEO is a leading telecommunications operator in Portugal…Together, we aim to unlock the potential of 5G to support the digital transformation of industries and redefine customer experiences.”
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