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How research is exploring future scenarios for European telecoms

Edoardo Meraviglia
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How research is exploring future scenarios for European telecoms

The 5G&Beyond Observatory of the Politecnico di Milano investigates if it’s possible to foresee future scenarios and what the processes would be behind their identification?

The telecoms industry ‘s decades-old stability is being disrupted by technological paradigms, such as 5G, open RAN and edge-cloud, as well as economic challenges. As digital’s influence and significance grows across industries (see graph above, taken from white paper discussed below), the demand for high-performance network infrastructure and services rises. The infrastructures and services must meet the specific needs of different verticals and support the digital transformation of companies that rely on connectivity.

Many questions remain about the future ‘value network’ in telecoms. The landscape will be shaped by: the strategic decisions and innovation capabilities of industry players; regulatory and legislative industrial policies; changes at national and European levels; and being able to attract investment from stakeholders, including other supply chains.

In the long term, profound changes are expected to:

• the different layers of the current value network

• the roles and positions of existing players

• the nature of the players in the sector, and

• the relationships between companies within the ecosystem and their end customers, including consumers, businesses and the public sector.

Can we predict the future?

Is it possible to foresee future scenarios and what would the processes be behind their identification? Numerous researchers have tried to define a clear and comprehensive methodology to predict and possible and preferable scenarios using different approaches. Yet it is unclear whether the methodologies are reliable and which are the most suitable for analysing different industries. The challenge is not only to create forecasting tools but to validate their effectiveness and specificity in various contexts.

With this in mind, the 5G&Beyond Observatory of the Politecnico di Milano initiated a two-year project within the RESTART foundation program. Funded by the European Union*, since mid March 2022, the program has received a total investment of €116 million. This makes it the most significant public R&D initiative ever undertaken in Italy’s telecoms sector. The program involves 25 partners, including universities, research centres and private companies. It consists of seven missions and 19 grand challenges.

Evolutionary scenarios

The primary objective of this project is to explore potential evolutionary scenarios for the European telecoms ecosystem taking advantage of the large RESTART community of experts and their international relations. By identifying the factors and decisions that could influence its development, the project aims to support market players in navigating this transformation and assist decision-makers in taking informed choices.

The project addresses the Grand Challenge #0 – Envision the Future Evolution of the Telecommunications Ecosystem in Italy and internationally. The research team includes management engineers and a scientific director with a telecoms background.

The project’s first output , the whitepaper, A Techno-Economic View of the Future of Telecommunications, was published on the RESTART foundation website on 16 April. It was presented at the 5G&Co international conference, organized by the Interuniversity Consortium for Telecommunications CNIT. The paper has been translated into English to encourage European collaboration among similar projects and facilitate discussions on the future of the telecoms ecosystem.

It delves into the current structure of the telecoms ecosystem, aiming to establish an initial model representing the players and their value-creating activities. The document provides preliminary insights and will serve as the foundation for further research and devloping potential evolutionary scenarios.

It highlights issues such as declining market revenues, competitive dynamics and emerging technology trends. Based on a review of the academic literature on business models, value networks, and the definition of the telecommunications industry’s boundaries, a new definition of the telecommunications ecosystem perimeter is proposed, identifying 16 categories of different telco player archetypes.

A comprehensive model

The paper introduces a comprehensive model that will map relationships between various players, focusing on value creation and capture, and the evolving business models within the industry. This model outlines the architecture of telecomms ecosystem across five layers, from macro infrastructure components to service delivery.

Recommended value network architecture layers from the white paper

The first two layers deal with the physical infrastructure and have been divided into backbone infrastructure and mobile, fixed line and IT. Within these layers are the activities performed by infrastructure providers such as laying submarine cables, design and construction of mobile and fixed line infrastructure, and IT infrastructure like Internet Exchange Point (IXPs) and data centres.

Next is the layer related to network deployment in terms of functionality and networking, involving activities like spectrum provisioning and implementation of core and RAN functions. The final two layers deal with connectivity service delivery and value-added services. They are services that can extend to other supply chains and are not only related to connectivity solutions.

Value-added services has two sub-layers. The first is related to the commercialisation of general-purpose ICT services for the B2B, B2C and public sectors. The second one concerns consultancy and implementation services for specific vertical use cases for private companies and the public sector. A typical example is consulting and project integration for private mobile networks where the offer is the technology infrastructure and the enabling application.

Future configurations

Lastly, the white paper presents initial thoughts on the future configuration of the telecoms value network, derived from secondary sources and expert interviews. These insights are categorised into market structure, technology transformations and digital market roles. They emphasise trends like mergers and acquisitions, network softwarisation, and the increasing importance of AI, cloud and cybersecurity.

This provides the basis for mapping the mega-trend of the telco industry and start to define possible scenarios. Next we will identify the next steps of the research into future scenarios to evaluate each one qualitatively and define the overall value network.

The telecoms industry is at a critical juncture. The RESTART foundation program, spearheaded by the 5G&Beyond Observatory, represents an important step towards understanding and shaping the future of its ecosystem. By fostering collaboration and innovation, this initiative aims to provide a roadmap for industry stakeholders and policymakers, ensuring a resilient and adaptive telecom sector capable of meeting the demands of an increasingly digital world.

* NextGenerationEU as part of the NRRP – M4C2, Investment 1.3, Call n. 341

About the author

Edoardo Meraviglia is an analyst with the Osservatori Digital Innovation in Milan, Italy

Project Gigabit totters on with ‘landmark’ £288m contracts to BT

Annie Turner
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Project Gigabit totters on with ‘landmark’ £288m contracts to BT

The Labour Government has renewed its commitment to bringing Gigabit connectivity to the entire country but the pace is slow and not everyone is prepared to wait…

The British government is to give contracts worth £800 million to Openreach to build broadband infrastructure in hard to reach rural areas. Openreach is incumbent BT Group’s semi-detached, wholesale fixed access unit.

The contracts are part of the £5 billion Project Gigabit, which was announced by Boris Johnson in 2019 as a flagship policy – and its targets scaled down and pushed back after Johnson won the General Election at the end of that year.

Virgin Media O2 published research at the end of last month, while trumpeting its contribution to the national mobile Shared Rural Network (SRN). It found that up to 66% of young people are set to leave rural areas, saying they’re being driven away by a lack of career opportunities (30%), poor access to services (25%) and a lack of high-quality connectivity (24%). 

The SRN initiative was also set up by the Johnson administration in 2019 to extend 4G connectivity to 95% of the UK’s landmass by the end of 2025, although it too has been subject to delays.

At least the new Labour Government has picked up the Project Gigabit baton within weeks of coming to power, but how fast the initiative progresses remains to be seen. Elizabeth Anderson, CEO of the Digital Poverty Alliance, commented, “Millions across the country still struggle to access basic online services due to poor connectivity, especially in rural regions, so it’s excellent to see the government’s renewed push to roll out improved broadband.” 

Latest Project Gigabit contracts

The latest signed contracts, worth £288 million, cover 96,000 homes in difficult terrain in England (such as the Exmoor National Park and the Forest of Bowland, pictured), and the valleys of south Wales. They are intended to “provide access to lightning-fast gigabit-capable broadband to around 312,000 homes and businesses… It is the first time Wales, the region with the lowest percentage of gigabit coverage, will benefit from this programme,” noted the UK government.

The statement continued, “The landmark deal with telecoms provider Openreach represents one of the biggest milestones in the rollout of Project Gigabit, which targets places too expensive for providers to reach in their commercial build and which would otherwise be left behind with poor digital infrastructure.

It will help meet the growing demand for reliable connectivity, stimulating local rural economies and reducing regional disparities, by enabling remote working and attracting new businesses. The announcement follows this Government’s vow to redouble its efforts to achieve full gigabit coverage by 2030 and harness the enormous potential of technology to grow the economy, accelerate innovation and improve people’s lives.”

More to come

Further talks are underway with Openreach regarding contracts to reach about 215,800 more premises across England, Scotland and Wales, with more announcements “expected in the coming months”.

Areas expected to benefit from them include Central and North Scotland, North and South West Wales, Mid and South Devon, East and South Shropshire, North Herefordshire, North Somerset, Essex, North East England and Worcestershire.   

Meanwhile, in Norfolk

Norfolk County Council and its partner CGI announced they have provided ultra-fast reliable broadband to remote areas using low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite technology, with a free-to-use public wireless service. Norfolk is one of England’s largest and most sparsely populated counties.

The partners say the deployment complements Project Gigabit. They have worked with suppliers Ingen and Onwave to implement the solution, as many isolated areas not expected to benefit from fibre access until 2026 or later.

CGI’s more immediate solution to meet demand is at a lower cost than fibre deployment. Norfolk County Council (NCC) and CGI have worked together to speed up the delivery of ultrafast connectivity to rural areas much earlier than otherwise possible.

MTN buries the hatchet with IHS Towers 

Simon Dux
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MTN buries the hatchet with IHS Towers 

The long running saga of MTN’s dissatisfaction with the towerco’s governance seems to have drawn to an end

Following the announcement last week that IHS Towers and MTN Group had renewed and extended communications infrastructure deals in Nigeria, as well as completing the renewal of all contracts across IHS Towers-MTN markets recently, the companies have announced that, with the commercial relationship now firmly established for the next decade, they will now work constructively to find a mutually agreeable resolution to governance issues previously raised. 

Wind back a year and IHS was embroiled in dissent from the towerco’s largest investors including MTN, Wendel and Blackwells over governance and a lack of transparency. MTN’s issues stemmed from IHS Towers’ decision to reportedly cap MTN’s voting rights at 20%. The telco had said that it could not sell its non-voting shares and wanted its stake in the company to be reflected in its voting power. In 2022, the tower company acquired 5,701 towers from MTN. However, MTN owns 26% of IHS Towers through its subsidiary Mobile Telephone Networks (Netherlands).   

The spat culminated in MTN awarding competitor American Tower the chance to take over 2,500 of its network sites from IHS Towers’ local subsidiary starting in 2025. In December, IHS has offered improved commercial terms to MTN Nigeria to stop the transaction in its tracks and hold onto the contract.  

On 7 August 2024, the companies announced an agreement to renew and extend all Nigerian tower Master Lease Agreements until December 2032. The contracts include new financial terms that provide what the parties believe to be a “more sustainable split between local and foreign currency”. With this deal, IHS Towers and MTN Group have now completed the renewal of approximately 26,000 MTN tenancies on IHS Towers infrastructure across six African markets – Nigeria, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Zambia and South Africa. 

“The renewal of the various contracts across our markets into the next decade put MTN operations in the respective markets onto a more sustainable footing. We remain focused on ensuring our networks are well invested, have high availability and have the headroom to meet the growing and structural demand for data going into the future,” said MTN Group president and CEO Ralph Mupita (above). “These renewals are key to those priorities. We look forward to working constructively with IHS on the outstanding governance issues now that commercial arrangements have been concluded.” 

“As our largest customer and longest serving partner, we are proud to have completed the renewal of all tenancies with MTN Group in our African markets,” said IHS Towers chairman and CEO Sam Darwish. “Today, we reinforce our strategic relationship and commit to increased operational stability, by securing our revenue streams into the next decade, and leveraging our shared innovation to deliver critical connectivity and support digital inclusion across the African continent.” 

He added: “We are excited by the next phase of our commercial partnership and welcome the opportunity to work constructively for the benefit of the end user.”  

Nigerian deal details  

Last week, IHS in Nigeria, a subsidiary of IHS Towers and MTN Nigeria announced an agreement to renew and extend all Nigerian tower Master Lease Agreements until December 2032, covering approximately 13,500 tenancy contracts. With regards to the approximately 2,500 MTN Nigeria tenancies that had been due to expire at the end of 2024 and in 2025, under the new terms IHS Towers will renew 1,430 tenancies (including new colocations). MTN is Nigeria’s largest mobile network operator, with approximately 79 million subscribers. 

Under the new terms, there is a US dollar component that will continue to benefit from annual escalators linked to US Consumer Price Index, a NGN component that will benefit from escalators linked to Nigerian Consumer Price Index, and a new component indexed to the cost of providing diesel power, introduced to act as a hedge against diesel prices and FX fluctuations. 

Supporting ISPs is key to achieving Europe’s digital decade aims

Tom Smyth
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Supporting ISPs is key to achieving Europe’s digital decade aims

The argument for allocating 6GHz to fixed wireless access and Wi-Fi, rather than making it into additional spectrum for 5G

Ireland is one of many European countries in the vanguard of rolling out technologies intended to address the digital divide – for consumers and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

There are around 30 companies like Wireless Connect operating in Ireland, and a couple of thousand across Europe. There is a growing desire to invest within our communities and deliver reliable connectivity to all.

We are operating in a sector evolving at a phenomenal rate. In 2006 we were delivering 1Mbps to customers; now we deliver 200-250x this. The race to gigabit connectivity is on, but will only be achieved if ISPs are given access to the additional licence-exempt spectrum they need. Being able to deliver and brand yourself as ‘gigabit capable’ is essential to compete. Giving ISPs the tools to offer gigabit and above speeds will help the European Union and its member states achieve the goals set out in its Digital Decade Programme.

Successes outside the region

If Europe’s smaller ISPs are not allocated more licence-exempt spectrum, they cannot deliver these goals. This is why companies like Wireless Connect and international organisations like the Dynamic Spectrum Alliance (DSA) are advocating strongly for those looking to deploy and invest in their own infrastructure.

Additional spectrum within the 6GHz band would bring greater choice to customers, as Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) provides an alternative infrastructure that can compete on price to foster fair competition. The 2030 Gigabit targets could even be surpassed.

We are seeing demonstrable results from the Americas: 6GHz technologies are deployed in rural areas across the US after the decision to grant ISPs and other organisations access to the full 1.2GHz of spectrum within the 5.9-7.1GHz band. This is being used successfully for FWA and Wi-Fi.

FWA is also a big success in South America with the growing support of regulators in the region. We want to stop envying our FWA colleagues across the Atlantic and to enjoy the same opportunities to connect the unconnected with Gigabit speeds in Europe.

We have the equipment here in Europe, ready to go, but cannot deploy them at the same level of performance and scale as across the ocean. There is a huge desire to get the ball rolling and unleash the capabilities 6GHz FWA, Wi-Fi 6 and 6E across our continent.

We urge the EU to follow their example and empower businesses to deliver innovative technologies to those who need it most. This is how to ensure all Europeans enjoy the same social and economic benefits as the well-connected across the world and bridge the digital divide.

Levelling the playing field

There are ongoing discussions about the suitability of the 6GHz band for 5G technologies. 5G and Wi-Fi are complementary, not replacements for each other. At present, only 40% of 5G licensed frequencies have been deployed. It’s vital that telcos invest and deploy in the frequencies they have been allocated before asking for more.

There has been a huge impetus to improve conditions for telcos, but more needs to be done for the consumer. That is why utilising the entire 6GHz band for licence-exempt access is so important.

Wireless-based ISPs complement the investments made by larger telecom companies whose main focus is urban, more densely populated areas. Most of the smaller ISPs that invest in their own localities base services on proximity, rather than analysis to assess which areas would be most profitable.

Power to the people

Giving Wi-Fi and FWA providers greater amounts of spectrum would enable a holistic solution to the tapestry of Europe’s connectivity problems, while remaining consistent with regional policies. This demands greater collaboration from all relevant parties to build on existing pro-competition infrastructure policies.

Through more joined-up thinking from regulators and legislators – particularly in the context of the Gigabit Infrastructure Act –  Europe can achieve great things. Continued support is necessary for general authorisation and licence-exempt spectrum sharing for Europe’s smaller ISPs to build credible platforms to attract further investment and development in pursuit of greater connectivity.

Empowering 450 million citizens and thousands of SMEs to buy and install their own 6GHz wireless solutions in their homes, businesses and communities is far more beneficial than auctioning off the 6GHz spectrum to a few high bidders. Giving control of this resource to a companies could lead to them monopolising access to 5G services and holding everyone else at ransom.

About the author

Tom Smyth is Managing & Technology Director at Wireless Connect which is a partner of the Dynamic Spectrum Alliance (DSA)

Altice to sell 24.5% stake in BT to Bharti conglomerate for undisclosed sum

Annie Turner
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Altice to sell 24.5% stake in BT to Bharti conglomerate for undisclosed sum

The move follows billionaire Patrick Drahi failing to sell Altice Portugal to pay of some of the group’s $60bn debt

Patrick Drahi’s struggling Altice Group is to sell its stake in the UK’s BT Group to the Indian conglomerate Bharti Enterprises, which is controlled by billionaire Sunil Bharti Mittal. The Altice Group, which is controlled by Drahi, is BT Group’s biggest shareholder with a 24.5% holding.

Bharti lost no time in emphasising it has no intention of trying to buy the entire BT Group in a statement to the London Stock Exchange today.

The price for the stake has not been made public. A 9% stake was worth about £980 million according to the Daily Telegraph, citing New Street Research.

Drahi’s telecom empire, the Altice Group, was largely built by leveraging debt but inflation and higher interest rates means the $60 billion accumulated debt is more expensive to service. The Group is also subject to a criminal investigation in Portugal and France for alleged corruption.

Step by step

Altice Group bought its first, 21.1% stake in BT in June 2021, increasing it to 18% in December the same year then raising the stake to its current level in May 2023.

Bharti will also acquire its stake in stages. The Indian conglomerate said it would buy the first part, equivalent to 9.99% of the UK company imminently. The outstanding 14.51% will be bought when the company receives regulatory approval to do so. The Guardian reports that BT previously owned a 21% stake in Bharti Airtel and had two seats on its board between 1997 and 2001.

Bharti is applying voluntarily for clearance under the UK’s National Security and Investment Act. This gives the government oversight of takeovers involving critical infrastructure. The threshold for mandatory notification of the government is 25% ownership.

Drahi had been trying to sell Altice Portugal, the country’s renamed incumbent, but has been unable to reach agreement on the price with potential buyers, most recently reported to be Saudi’s stc.

Demonstrates confidence

Mittal said in a statement, “This investment demonstrates the confidence we have in BT and in the UK. BT has a strong portfolio of market leading brands, high-quality assets and an experienced management team with a compelling strategy mandated by the BT board to deliver value over the long term, which we fully support.

“BT is playing a vital role to expand access to full-fibre broadband infrastructure for millions of people across the UK. Its focus on strengthening its networks, driving consumer growth, and optimising every aspect of its business makes it well placed to consolidate its position as a leading global telecoms company.”

Allison Kirkby, the BT chief executive, said in a statement, “We welcome investors who recognise the long-term value of our business, and this scale of investment from Bharti Global is a great vote of confidence in the future of BT Group and our strategy.

“BT has enjoyed a long association with Bharti Enterprises, and I’m pleased that they share our ambition and vision for the future of our business. They have a strong track record of success in the sector, and I look forward to ongoing and positive engagement with them in the months and years to come.”

In what was widely interpreted as a show of confidence in Kirkby’s leadership, the Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim invested £400 million in 3% stake in BT in June.

Bharti entered the telecoms industry in 1995 although Mittal started his business empire in 1976 as a bicycle components maker. His interests now range from telecoms and satellites to hotels and property. The Bharti conglomerate plays a dominant role in India’s economy and Bharti Airtel is the world’s third biggest mobile service provider by subscriber numbers.

Eutelsat enters exclusive talks to hive off and sell part of passive ground assets

Annie Turner
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Eutelsat enters exclusive talks to hive off and sell part of passive ground assets

Radical move by satellite group echoes the great tower divestment by telcos – EQT Infrastructure VI fund is satco’s potential investor

We are potentially seeing the trend of telcos selling off their passive infrastructure in the satellite sector. Eutelsat Group has signed an exclusive option agreement with the EQT Infrastructure VI fund (EQT) regarding its passive ground infrastructure assets.

The proposed transaction would involve Eutelsat carving out its passive assets (land, buildings, support infrastructure, antennas and connectivity circuits for the combined portfolio of teleports and satellite network portals) into a separate unit.

It would be incorporated as a standalone legal entity. EQT and own 80% of the capital. Eutelsat Group would remain a long-term shareholder, anchor tenant and partner of the new company. EQT would hold the outstanding 20%.

Eutelsat claims that if the move goes ahead, the new entity would be “the world’s largest pure-play, operator-neutral, ground station- as-a-service company, bringing together top-level teams combining satellite-specific knowledge with highly experienced infrastructure service operators for optimum customer service”.

Long-term play

Assuming the transaction is completed, Eutelsat would enter into a long-term framework master service agreement (MSA) covering services to be rendered by the new company to Eutelsat Group. The MSA would assure the seamless continuity of Eutelsat’s activities “at the same high level of efficiency, reliability and security”.

The proposed transaction values the new entity at an enterprise value of €790 million and shift future maintenance capex to the new entity. The proceeds would enable Eutelsat to strengthen its financial profile and focus on the next generation of its multi-orbit fleet.

Eva Berneke, Chief Executive Officer of Eutelsat Group, said, “We are proud to become the first satellite operator to embark on this innovative transaction which would allow us to build on the model adopted in other industries, and to optimise the value of our extensive ground network.

“In EQT we have found a partner of the highest quality, who shares our vision. This transaction would represent a win-win situation for all parties, and would enable Eutelsat to strengthen its financial profile, whilst continuing to rely on the unparalleled quality and reliability of its ground infrastructure. Moreover, we are confident that with the backing of EQT, the business would be in a position to fully embrace the opportunities opening up to it as the new Global leader in this dynamic sector.

Carl Sjölund, Partner within the EQT Value-Add Infrastructure advisory team, added: “At EQT, we identified satellite ground stations as an attractive digital infrastructure vertical several years ago. They play an important role in ensuring global connectivity, especially for those not covered by fixed and mobile connectivity solutions and require deep global expertise in developing and operating telecommunications infrastructure businesses. We are delighted to partner with Eutelsat Group to create a ground station leader and capture the growth opportunity fuelled by technological innovation.”

The transaction is subject to customary conditions and approvals by the relevant regulatory authorities as well as consultation with French security authorities and the appropriate employee representative bodies. Closing of the deal is expected in the first quarter of calendar year 2026.

Photo courtesy of Eutelsat, showing ground station at Turin, Italy.

VEON reports 12% growth fuelled by digital services, 10m more customers

Annie Turner
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VEON reports 12% growth fuelled by digital services, 10m more customers

It attracted 10 million more 4G customers and now has 111 million digital service users – plans be solely Nasdaq listed and initiate a share buyback programme

VEON, which has headquarters in Amsterdam, has reported strong results for Q2. During the period its revenues were 12.1% higher than the same quarter last year, reaching $1 billion (€916.22 million). Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 10.6% to $459 million.

VEON has almost 160 million customers and operations in six countries that are home to more than 7% of the world’s population – Pakistan, Ukraine, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. VEON exited the Russian market in October 2023.

Organic and digital growth

Its CEO, Kaan Terzioğlu (pictured), said the results were due to “robust organic performance across our markets”.

During the quarter VEON attracted 10 million additional 4G customers and has 111 million digital service users, “showcasing our capability to build new businesses in financial, entertainment, healthcare, education and enterprise services,” Terzioğlu said.

He continued: “I am also happy to report for the first time the direct digital revenues generated through our digital financial services, entertainment services, healthcare services, advertising services and Super apps,” which amounted to $108 million in Q2.

This is 83.3% more than a year ago.

The operator group stated it is on target to meet its projected revenue growth for the year of between 16% and 18%, and for EBITDA, increases of between 18% and 20%.

Plans to delist in Amsterdam

The results follow an announcement at the beginning of the month that VEON intends to delist from Euronext Amsterdam and initiate a share buyback programme for up to $100 million

The company said the delisting, and resulting sole listing on Nasdaq, will simplify and streamline the company’s reporting requirements. VEON expects the lelisting process to take place in the fourth quarter of 2024.

HPE wins UK approval to acquire Juniper Networks for $14bn

Annie Turner
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HPE wins UK approval to acquire Juniper Networks for $14bn

Last week the deal was also given unconditional approval by the European Commission – the parties hope to complete later this year or early next

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) has won approval from the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to go ahead with its planned $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks.

This is after an investigation lasting less than two months. The CMA said it would publish the full text of its decision shortly.

Last week the European Commission also gave its unconditional permission for the transaction to proceed.

The Commission said “the transaction, as notified, would not significantly reduce competition on such markets.  In particular, concerning the horizontal overlaps between the companies’ activities in the market for WLAN equipment, WAPs and Ethernet campus switches.”

It added, “Concerning the conglomerate links between Juniper’s switches and HPE’s activities in the global markets for the supply of high-performance computing…systems and mid-range servers, the Commission found that in the EEA the merged entity would not have the ability to engage in anticompetitive bundling or tying practices.”

The Commission outlines its reasoning for both conclusions in the statement.

When the proposed deal was announced, at a higher price than expected, HPE’s President and CEO, Antonio Neri (pictured), said in a statement, “HPE’s acquisition of Juniper represents an important inflection point in the industry and will change the dynamics in the networking market and provide customers and partners with a new alternative that meets their toughest demands.

“This transaction will strengthen HPE’s position at the nexus of accelerating macro-AI trends, expand our total addressable market, and drive further innovation for customers as we help bridge the AI-native and cloud-native worlds, while also generating significant value for shareholders.”

HPE’s ancestor companies have not always had a happy history with outsize acquisitions and just before the takeover won the Commission’s approval, Juniper Networks reported a 17% fall in its Q2 revenues compared to the previous year to $1.19 billion and a 68% plummet in operating profit to $45 million. On the upside, it said its pipeline is looking healthy.

The companies still have other hurdles to clear but at the moment expect the acquisition to be completed late this year or early in 2025.  

Not everybody is happy though. Hannes Gredler, CTO of the edge routing vendor RtBrick groused, “These big acquisitions are becoming the norm…The bottom line is that while HPE has strengthened its market position by acquiring Juniper, it has also left a concerning dent in competition, customer choice and confidence.” 

And continued, “Another example is Nokia’s recent $2.3 billion acquisition of Infinera, underscoring the company’s push to dominate the optical network market, boosting its market share and enhancing its competitive edge.

“However, this move also reduces the number of independent vendors in the optical networking space, further consolidating market power among a few large entities and limiting customer choice. Acquisitions of this nature inevitably come with product overlap and resetting priorities by the acquiring company, leaving customers uncertain about the future of their chosen products.” 

Europe lagging on Open RAN – Dell’Oro 

Simon Dux
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Europe lagging on Open RAN – Dell’Oro 

However, Open RAN revenues are still expected to rise to 15-20% of the global market by 2028

Despite having the full backing of the US government, the global Open RAN market is the antithesis of say, the global AI server market, even with solid progress in some aspects of the market. The envisioned transformation in vendor dynamics appears to be stalling, according to Stefan Pongratz, VP of RAN market research at Dell’Oro.  

The analyst firm’s latest report highlights that Open RAN is projected to capture 30-40% of revenues outside China by 2028, with North America leading the adoption. Europe’s Open RAN revenues are expected to rise to 15-20% of the global market by 2028.  

Outside the purist Open RAN vision though virtualisation and openness have taken root in most mobile operators which demonstrates that taken together, Open RAN, cloud RAN, and multivendor RAN are poised to hold substantial market shares. 

“Open RAN is happening, but this vision that Open RAN will significantly change the vendor dynamics is fading,” said Pongratz. “With most of the leading RAN suppliers now committed to the latest O-RAN fronthaul interfaces, the question now is more about the timing and the adoption curve for the various RAN segments’” 

 The long-term position remains favourable and mostly unchanged. Despite ongoing challenges, most operators will gradually incorporate more openness, virtualization, intelligence, and automation into their RAN roadmaps. Dell’Oro says the pace will differ slightly between the radios and the baseband, while the multi-vendor RAN business case is less compelling. 

The estimates for open RAN, cloud RAN, and multivendor RAN are mostly unchanged from the beginning of the year. By 2028, they are expected to account for >25%, 20 to 25%, and <10% of the total RAN market, respectively.  

The forecast is more favorable outside of China, with Open RAN projected to comprise 30 to 40% of the revenues by 2028. North America was the largest region in 2023 and is expected to lead the broader Open RAN movement throughout the forecast period. The US government has taken Open RAN fervour to its Pacific neighbours as well with Open RAN featuring prominently in bilateral statements and through organisations like the Quad. North America stumbled in 2023 but is set to lead the Open RAN market over the forecast period. 

After a slow start, Europe is projected to account for 15 to 20% of worldwide Open RAN revenues by 2028.  

5G slowdown seeping through the market 

Some of Europe’s slow start can be attributed to the general slowdown of 5G rollouts and this has kicked on to adjacent markets. For example, Dell’Oro Group just lowered the near-term forecast for mobile backhaul transport by approximately 6%. Demand for mobile backhaul transport equipment is now projected to be $24.5 billion over the next five years. This figure represents the cumulative amount of transport systems deployed from 2024 through 2028. 

“We believe the 5G build cycle will be more gradual and calculated,” said Dell’Oro VP Jimmy Yu. “Thus, we have transplanted the reduction in mobile backhaul demand forecasted in 2024 and 2025 to the outer years of the forecast time period, creating a more moderate rise in demand over the next five years.” 

Demand for mobile backhaul equipment, consisting of both wireless and fibre systems, to be used in 5G networks is now forecast to grow at a five-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%. Use of Wireless Systems for backhaul is projected to grow at a higher rate than fibre Systems in the next five years since more mobile radio deployments are expected to occur in countries that mostly use point-to-point microwave transmission systems for mobile backhaul. 

Nokia, Swisscom Broadcast plan largest Drones-as-a-Service network

Annie Turner
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Nokia, Swisscom Broadcast plan largest Drones-as-a-Service network

Nokia Drone Networks solution includes 300 Drone-in-a-Box bundles and is designed for public safety and industrial use cases in Switzerland

Swisscom Broadcast has selected Nokia to deploy a nationwide Drones-as-a-Service network across Switzerland. It plans to have 300 Nokia Drone-in-a-Box units ready to deploy for emergency response, perimeter protection and infrastructure inspection. The aim is to improve the safety of public sector workers and promote Industry 4.0 practices.

This will be the second nationwide deployment for Nokia Drone Networks after Belgium’s Citymesh. The vendor claims this highlights how it can modernise digital infrastructure using mission-critical industrial edge computing (MXIE) plus 3GPP technologies for operations requiring beyond line of sight, autonomous operation.

Public safety

As well as proecting first responders’ lives, the remotely operated drones can also help save the lives of those involved in incidents by gathering relevant information within the first minutes of an emergency, boosting first responders’ situational awareness.

Public safety agencies in Switzerland simply request a drone flight from Swisscom Broadcast. The drones are ‘packaged’ with a service portfolio including expertise, compliance, data collection and analysis of the collected data from Nokia and Swisscom Broadcast.

The deployment is expected to be available in all areas of Switzerland. Nokia and Swisscom will continue cooperating with competent regulatory bodies to ensure all operations comply with regulatory frameworks, especially from spectrum and aviation safety standpoints.

Protecting industrial workers

Drones will also boost worker safety within the Swiss industry through applications as inspecting tall or hard-to-reach infrastructure, which removes the need for workers to climb or walk around hazardous areas. As Nokia Drone Networks are an integral part of the Nokia MXIE platform architecture, they enable easy onboarding of additional applications for industrial customers with Edge computing needs, such as creating 3D maps or detecting assets.

The deployment will facilitate reliable Drone-as-a-Service operations at scale in Switzerland with Nokia Drone Networks, a turnkey Drone-in-a-Box solution that integrates the drone, a docking station, a ground control station, a payload with video and thermal cameras, related software, and service components.

The solution uses APIs for integration with, for example, as traffic monitoring systems, video management software, dispatch solutions and industrial inspection and process monitoring systems.

This collaboration with Swisscom Broadcast will also enable industrial use cases, automation and beyond line of sight operations, plus the expansion of 3GPP technologies for drone use in Switzerland.

Dominik Müller, CEO at Swisscom Broadcast, said: “The integration of our existing People Density Tool and our Drone Operations expertise with Nokia’s industrial grade hardware in combination with an open and future proof Software architecture is an important key to support such large-scale projects.”

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