Cobalt, the corporate finance Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) specialist, has today announced the findings from its 2008 TMT Winter Survey. The second annual survey of the TMT sector is said to highlight a stark contrast between the prospects for the economy and for businesses in the sectors.

Over 100 TMT sector CEO's and board representatives were surveyed revealing that the majority (64%) believes the impact of this recession on the sector will not be worse than the 2000/2001 when the sector suffered its own ‘recession' in contrast to the rest of the economy at the time.

The overall findings reveal that expectations regarding the economy and potential depth of the recession have of course worsened, but the impact of the recession on the sector is expected to be largely neutral with as many winners as losers.

Remarkably, 91% also believe that their sales figures for 2009 will be static or better than that experienced in 2008, and half of them (50%) claim no material impact from the credit crunch to date.

Chris Williams, Partner at Cobalt Corporate Finance commented, ‘It is encouraging to see this resilient view coming from the technology, media and telecoms industries. The younger businesses in these vibrant sectors might be expected to be perennially positive for their own prospects but the overall response reflects significant maturing of the sectors since the ‘90s, with improved cashflows and stronger balance sheets'.

However this does not mean that the industry will not be affected by the recession. A prolonged recession is seen by 65% of those surveyed as the principle threat to their sector, whilst the lengthening of customer payment terms or failure to pay altogether was selected by 52% as the second greatest threat.  Interestingly, the endemic threat of disruptive technologies upon sector incumbents is highlighted by only 20% as a primary threat.

While the majority (51%) believed the debt squeeze would not affect their business plans, many are anticipating a tough 2009 with 63% believing the recession will end in 2010. This is reflected in anticipated employment levels with the majority (54%) expecting reductions in 2009, a dramatic shift compared to a year ago when 44% believed that employment levels would continue to grow throughout 2008.

As regards government, confidence does not appear to have benefited from the state rescue package for the banking sector with 36% of businesses seeing the increased role of government and regulation as a material threat.

On the global stage, the rise of Asia for opportunities has been reversed since last year with China and India dropping by 25% and 16% respectively with a reversion towards traditional markets lead by Western Europe (37%) and  North America (27%).

Chris Williams continued, ‘Comparing these findings with last years' survey, it is clear that general confidence has declined, but less than might have been expected. There is no overwhelming prediction of a collapse, as seen in 2000/2001. While the next year is undoubtedly going to be tough, the sector sees it as a slow down with some winners and losers but with most of the industry quickly digging in for a recovery in 2 to 3 years.'

Although cellular handset accessories such as chargers and batteries ship far more units in what is today a $58 billion industry, memory cards provide the greatest revenue of all mobile phone add-ons, according to a new study from ABI Research.
 
Driven by the photo, audio and video demands of media-centric handsets and smartphones, these memory cards, largely from third-party suppliers such as SanDisk, will see a 17% compound annual growth rate in shipments over the years to 2013.
 
However, says industry analyst Michael Morgan, it's not just about units shipped: "Of all accessories, memory cards deliver the best revenue return. In fact, as production has outstripped demand the market is currently oversupplied, leading to a 60% year-over-year fall in per-Megabyte prices. However, the memory capacity of the cards being sold is always increasing, and the resulting higher Megabyte volumes more than offset the decline in ASP."
 
Handset makers have been putting inexpensive low-capacity cards into smartphone and media phone boxes for some time. However, notes Morgan, there is currently a point of friction between handset vendors and carriers: the operators want all memory cards out of the box, preferring to sell higher-capacity cards separately. "The challenge for mobile operators," he says, "is that subsidizing handset accessories means losing some of the high margins that they earn through the sales of these products. But subsidies also mean that many more subscribers will have handset accessories such as memory cards, and will be more likely to use mobile music services or download songs, leading to higher data ARPUs for operators."

The near-term importance of new embedded-3G and embedded-WiMAX notebooks has been significantly over-estimated, according to a new research report published by Disruptive Analysis. Even in three year's time, laptops with built-in wireless access will only be used by 30% of total, active mobile broadband subscribers globally. External USB modems – or "dongles" – will account for 58% – almost twice as many, claims the report.

However, the report, "Mobile Broadband Computing: Device Market Forecasts & Business Model Scenarios" predicts that in the long term, embedded mobile broadband will indeed overtake separate modems, in terms of both shipments and the active user base. By 2014, there will be 150m users of notebooks and the smaller "netbooks" with embedded mobile broadband worldwide. In terms of device shipments, 100m wireless-enabled laptops will be sold annually by then – although not all of them will actually be activated.

The study identifies numerous reasons for the slower-than-anticpated growth of embedded WWAN (wireless wide area networking). Key reasons include: the global recession impacting notebook purchases, unfavourable pricing differentials; the limitations of the sales and support channels for mobile-enabled notebooks; and the typical two-year monthly contract payment model, which does not fit with much of the target market for these devices. This makes comparisons with the rapid rate of adoption of WiFi in laptops appear over-simplistic.

The report's author, Dean Bubley, said "Mobile-embedded notebooks are very elegant in concept – but suffer from practical and business-model limitations that will restrict their near-term growth, especially during a period of economic uncertainty when buyers will be especially conservative."

Other findings from the report include:

    a.. The new market category of "Mobile Internet Devices" (MIDs) will grow only slowly. Only 3m will be sold in 2009, although by 2014 this should grow to ten times that figure.
    b.. By 2012, there will be 45m users of WiMAX mobile broadband computing devices. 11m of these will also use 3G or LTE connections in various hybrid or multimode approaches.
    c.. An increasing proportion of subscribers will use their 3G handsets as "tethers" for their PCs, instead of using separate modems or built-in modules. However, fewer than 10% of people will use tethers as their sole access method.

The report also predicts that 2009 will be a much more difficult year for mobile broadband, compared with the huge growth experienced in 2008. The recession and non-availability of credit will drive a softening of demand for laptops generally, as well as a focus on value. For most people, built-in 3G or WiMAX is a "nice to have", not a "must have".

The report also says that some mobile operators, especially in Europe, have over-sold the 3G dongle proposition, experiencing huge uptake at very low prices, threatening congestion and worsening user experience. On some networks, 90%+ of data traffic comes from PCs, with tariffs as low as $10-15 per month barely covering the underlying costs. Huge growth in traffic from Apple iPhones and other smartphones is adding to the operators' pain. Despite upgrades to higher peak speeds for HSPA, the total capacity is still limited by a range of network bottlenecks.

Finance officers at the operators have been happy about getting back some revenue on their existing, expensive and under-utilised network assets. However, they are much less enthusiastic at spending on upgrades. This combination of Credit Crunch and Capacity Crunch will have a marked effect.

One outcome will be a shift to new business models for mobile broadband. As well as revised prices and bandwidth caps, Disruptive Analysis expects to see new payment mechanisms emerge. Prepay ("pay as you go") accounts are already popular in some markets and this will increase. In addition, new session-based, sponsored or "free" mobile broadband models will start to mirror the WiFi hotspot business – especially where network congestion can be lowered by the use of new "femtocell" access points. Conventional, long-term, monthly contracts will account for only 40% of worldwide mobile broadband subscribers by the end of 2011, says the report.

The Open Handset Alliance, a group of technology and mobile players, has announced that Vodafone, Sony Ericsson and Ericsson are among the membership of 14 additional companies. By joining the founding members of the Open Handset Alliance, the companies are demonstrating their support for Android as an open mobile platform and their commitment to its commercial success, says the OHA..

New members will either deploy compatible Android devices, contribute significant code to the Android Open Source Project, or support the ecosystem through products and services that will accelerate the availability of Android-based devices. With these commitments, the Open Handset Alliance says it will continue to drive greater and faster innovation for the benefit of mobile users and everyone in the industry.

Open Handset Alliance members' continued contributions to Android give everyone in the mobile ecosystem a free and complete mobile platform to build Android devices. The new members will add to the momentum of Android device availability, providing developers with an even greater opportunity to deploy compelling applications that will reach a global audience.

"Sony Ericsson is excited to announce its membership of the Open Handset Alliance and confirm its intention to develop a handset based on the Android platform" said Rikko Sakaguchi, CVP and head of Creation and Development, Sony Ericsson. "We believe Sony Ericsson can bring a wealth of experience in making consumer focused multimedia handsets with new user experience to the Alliance drawing on the successes of the Walkman and Cyber-shot sub-brands.  Sony Ericsson is a strong supporter of open operating systems and we believe the Open Handset Alliance offers an exciting opportunity for a new and unique user experience only Sony Ericsson can deliver."

The new members are: AKM Semiconductor Inc., ARM, ASUSTek Computer Inc., Atheros Communications, Borqs, Ericsson, Garmin International Inc., Huawei Technologies, Omron Software Co. Ltd, Softbank Mobile Corporation, Sony Ericsson, Teleca AB, Toshiba Corporation and Vodafone.

The latest HSPA Devices Survey conducted by GSA, the Global mobile Suppliers Association, is said to confirm that 1,095 HSPA devices have been launched in the market. This is broadly equivalent to one new device announcement every day since the first HSPA mobile broadband system was launched on October 18, 2005.

692 new HSPA devices have been announced since October 07, representing growth of over 171% in a little over a year. The number of suppliers increased from 80 to 148 in that time, i.e. 85% growth.  The number of mobile phones supporting HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) has increased 126% since October 2007, and the number of HSPA/mobile broadband embedded notebooks increased by 257% in the same period. Excluding notebooks, 671 HSDPA devices (over 76%) support 3.6 Mbps or higher peak download data speeds, including 337 devices which support 7.2 Mbps peak or higher.

The GSA survey shows how HSPA devices address all market segments:

– 451 mobile phones

– 16 Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPC)

–  218 notebooks

– 154 USB modems

– 143 PC data cards (PCMCIA cards, ExpressCards, chipsets, embedded modules)

– 101 Wireless routers/gateways

– 8 Personal Media Players (PMP)

– 4 cameras

The number of HSUPA-capable (High Speed Uplink Packet Access) devices has more than quadrupled in just over a year. 153 devices support HSUPA operation (compared to 33 in October 2007), with most delivering up to 2.1 Mbps (peak) on the uplink. However, 51 HSUPA products support, or are upgradeable for, 5.76 Mbps (peak) or higher speed.

Alan Hadden, President, GSA said: "The market adoption of HSPA has been much faster than any other mobile technology, and is driving mobile broadband and the best user experience globally. Network efficiencies and performance, including data throughput capabilities, are increasing. Customers benefit from a vast choice of HSPA-equipped notebooks, USB modems, phones, etc. which continue to expand in number and reach into new market segments." 

GSA recently confirmed that 221 networks had commercially launched HSPA mobile broadband service in almost 100 countries.

While the majority of today's WCDMA-HSPA mobile broadband networks operate in the 2100 MHz band, the use of lower frequencies provides a much larger coverage area, which translates to a significant reduction in the number of cell sites required. A growing number of operators are today deploying HSPA at 900 MHz (UMTS900), typically as a complement to 2100 MHz systems, to extend voice, data and mobile broadband services coverage e.g. into rural areas. Another benefit is improved voice quality. UMTS900 is becoming a standard requirement for devices destined for Europe, MEA, and Asia Pacific markets, especially for data modems, and the 900/2100MHz combination for HSPA is becoming much more commonplace. Similar benefits and efficiencies are obtained using HSPA in the 850 MHz band, as commercially available today in the Americas and Australia, and in parts of Asia.

HSPA devices by frequency (excluding notebooks):

– 816 devices (over 93%) operate in 2100 MHz band

– 393 devices (over 44%) operate in 850 MHz band

– 281 tri-band 850/1900/2100 MHz for global roaming

– 74 devices operate in 900 MHz band (compared to 9 six months previously)

The majority of HSPA operators have deployed GSM/EDGE for service continuity and the best user experience. Manufacturers support this requirement, with the survey confirming that, excluding notebooks, over 82% of HSPA devices also support GSM/EDGE.

GSA says that HSPA is driving new business growth opportunities, and many converged products are emerging, including:

– 246 HSPA devices with 802.11/WLAN, i.e. over 28% of HSPA products (excluding notebooks).

– 189 HSPA devices with positioning functionality (GPS, Assisted GPS, etc.). Excluding notebooks, this represents over 21.5%.

– 80 HSPA devices with mobile TV capabilities (comprising various standards).

Video chat services are expected to be the largest contributors to a mobile adult market worth $4.9 billion by 2013, despite the economic downturn, according to a new report from Juniper Research.

The report found that while such services were utilised by a comparatively small number of consumers, the high spend levels – in many markets averaging several hundred dollars per user per annum – are expected to push the value of the adult video chat market past the $1bn mark by 2011.

The report also found that mobile adult service revenues proving relatively robust despite the global economic slowdown. According to report author Dr Windsor Holden, "We anticipate total revenues for 2008 of around $2.2bn, which are around 3.5% below our previous forecasts. And while in some instances usage levels are marginally lower than we expected, we are actually seeing significantly higher spend per user on video chat and on some subscription-based services."

However, the report also noted that a number of markets – such as Indonesia and Switzerland – had tightened the laws governing the access of adult content, while operators in the US still remained wary of offering such content on their portals. Nonetheless, it observed that elsewhere, and particularly in Europe and parts of Latin America, on-portal adult content – usually managed by third-parties – was becoming far more prevalent.

Other findings from the Juniper report iinclude:

• Western Europe will remain the largest regional market for mobile adult services throughout the period covered by the report, followed by the Far East & China.
• Premium content providers are becoming increasingly concerned at the volume of free adult content available via the Internet

GoHello, producer of the ALLmobile phone system for business, has announced  the availability of MyGoHello, said to be the world's first ALLmobile Assistant for Mobile – a free widget that extends GoHello's ALLmobile benefits to desk workers.

My GoHello is a small application that manages a user's entire telephony needs using only the mobile handset. Designed for PC- or desk based employees using a mobile phone, MyGoHello's sleek and intuitive user interface lets users manage, transfer or group calls, and other standard telephony features on their PC screen; leveraging GoHello's ALLmobile telephone system it also lets them use more advanced features such as Mobile Click-to-Dial, Mobile Click-to-Text, Group call management, status and presence etc. with a simple interface

MyGoHello is said to deliver advanced telephony in a simple, point-and-click, non technical manner – making the mobile phone the only phone ever needed for all business communications, any type of user, and further removing the need for any hardware phone system in the office.

MyGoHello is the latest addition to the GoHello product family, and is said to require no technical or telecoms expertise, installs in minutes and integrates seamlessly with the company's GoHello ALLmobile office phone system. MyGoHello is available for download free-of-charge from the GoHello web site.

Andy Rawll, Head of Products at GoHello commented: "In these times of market turmoil, customers have quickly appreciated the savings, increased mobility and flexibility of an ALLmobile phone solution over any hardware / IP telephone system. What companies need today is total flexibility and mobility without the high call charges or upfront technical costs; no long term contracts or tie-ups. Customers and partners asked us to extend GoHello's ALLmobile benefits to the office, so that their GoHello solution works great for their desk workers too. They wished for something like eBay's Skype[1] or IM1 , but better – something that uses their mobile (no other hardware needed, no set up, no tech complexity), and ideally free of charge – so we created MyGoHello, the 'one and only' communication tool for both inside and outside the office."

MyGoHello features a ClickOnce installation (making the entire installation process from within a browser from start to finish) and keeps updated at all times automatically with new features and performance improvements, – providing a level of "instantly-on", tech-free setup and intervention-free operation that is unmatched by all other business grade telephone systems.

Francois Mazoudier, CEO at GoHello added: "MyGoHello is a good showcase of the simplicity, cost effectiveness and superiority of ALLmobile solutions versus hardware in the office. With MyGoHello we are extending our lead in the ALLmobile sector with products and services that work beyond the receptionist's desk and provide unmatched value. Today, Business takes place in and outside of the office; employees are more efficient, responsive and productive when their office phone system is mobile, and companies make substantial savings by not having to purchase, install, manage or support any hardware at all. With efficiency and cost savings more relevant than ever we shall now focus on developing more unique, disruptive, ALLmobile solutions for our customers. These are exciting times for our industry (unless your core business relies on selling hardware!)."

Nextivity, a developer of in-building coverage technology, has announced that T-Mobile Netherlands will pilot the company's smart repeater devices as a potential technology to boost data rates in T-Mobile retail outlets throughout The Netherlands.

T-Mobile selected Nextivity to pilot smart repeater technology in retail stores throughout the country. T-Mobile aims to provide a consistency of experience for their customers — even in shops located in buildings with high attenuation losses. This holiday season, consumers can expect to experience real-world demos of the latest mobile applications on new T-Mobile handsets including the Apple iPhone 3G, Sony Ericsson Xperia X1, Nokia N96, and the Samsung Omnia.

"Most wireless subscribers know firsthand that brick, glass and other architectural elements can degrade the quality of their voice calls and offer less-than-peak data speeds when they are at home or at work," said Nextivity CEO Werner Sievers.  "Our smart repeater technology is designed to overcome the most demanding indoor coverage challenges and increase the effective RF capacity of each base station."

The Nextivity solution works in harmony with a mobile operator's network to maximize the data rates and voice quality experienced by users while indoors.  With advanced filtering, equalization and echo cancellation techniques, Nextivity's smart repeater delivers unprecedented in-building data rates and pervasive 3G connectivity.  Nextivity smart repeaters dynamically sense and react to the wireless environments found in homes and businesses and can increase the available in-building bandwidth.

Designed with smart antenna technology and an intelligent onboard processor, Nextivity's smart repeaters continually seek out the best available signal and automatically adjust to maximize the signal gain to the user. 

A new report from Portio Research focused on mobile messaging suggests that SMS will continue to be the cash cow of mobile data revenues for some time to come. Traffic volumes and revenues continue to confound predictions and are expected to keep growing throughout the global economic downturn. Indeed the whole mobile messaging industry worth USD 130 billion in 2008 is predicted to be worth USD 224 billion by 2013, 60 percent of non-voice service revenues.

The report, ‘Mobile Messaging Futures 2008 – 2013' ventures that there is nothing likely to stop continued growth of mobile messaging in the short term, driven by a cocktail of ubiquitous SMS, media rich MMS, enterprise based mobile email and youth conscious mobile IM.

SMS remains ‘King' because there is no cheap, easy to use alternative that will work with all phones and across all networks, and it is 'loved the world over', says Portio. Indeed in the US market, where SMS was a comparative slow starter, use per subscriber per month is now almost double the European average.  In China average users send over 100 messages each month whereas the Filipinos continue to be the leading exponents with 755 messages each month.

Portio also predict a bright future for mobile email even though Japan is the only market where consumer mobile e-mail has surpassed the use of SMS. Email is still the most popular form of business communication and the report suggests that mobile e-mail users worldwide will quadruple from approximately a quarter of a billion users in 2008 to over a billion users by the end of 2013.

The rising star in the mobile messaging constellation is mobile instant messaging (MIM), which is still beset by the technical problems of interoperability. Portio however predict exponential growth in mobile IM users, surging from a worldwide total of 111 million users in 2008 to hit a massive 867 million users by the close of 2013. This massive growth in users will be accompanied by an equally impressive 5-fold increase in revenues from approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2008 to approximately USD 12.4 billion in 2013.

Since MMS hit the mainstream in 2004 the press and analysts have been critical about its level of success. Back then, they wanted to MMS reach the same value as SMS, USD $30bn, for it be considered a success; finally in 2009 this will be a reality. MMS is growing fast and certain countries, such as China and the United States, are becoming very big markets. Worldwide MMS traffic of 75 billion messages in 2008 is impressive, and the future growth looks very good in Asia, as affordable camera-equipped handsets flood the market with China leading the way.

TM Forum and the Mobile Entertainment Forum (MEF) have announced the launch of a joint initiative to address the estimated $5 billion in annual losses experienced by content suppliers across the mobile content value chain. The losses are said to be attributable to incorrect reporting of revenue, and according to MEF calculations, comprise as much as 25 percent of the $18 billion mobile content services market.

A combined team of TM Forum and MEF member companies will develop and publish work focused on sales reporting metrics.  These metrics will enable service providers, content aggregators and providers to build a common understanding of the quality and quantity of services delivered, which in turn will improve the measure of revenue flows for these services across the value chain. This effort will build on existing MEF work designed to improve trust and profits across the value chain, and on TM Forum work related to business process and revenue leakage issues that reflect service provider perspectives.

Keith Willetts, chairman and CEO, TM Forum commented "We believe this partnership will bring major benefits to both TM Forum and MEF members as well as accelerating cooperation between the content and service provider communities.  The end goal is a win-win where the market for these sorts of services grows, losses are stemmed and profitability increases.  It is critical that all the players in the value chain understand how to work together to tackle these challenges."

According to Suhail Bhat, Policy & Initiative Director, Mobile Entertainment Forum, "MEF's consultation on content sales reporting is designed to a best practice template that can be adopted within the industry. By building this first step on sales reporting metrics together with TM Forum, we hope to address specific issues around timeliness, relevance, accuracy and consistency of reports."

Keith Miller, senior program manager for TM Forum's Value Chains Initiative, added, "The extended reach of MEF to the content, studios and record labels combined with the TM Forum's depth with service providers and suppliers worldwide allows us to build B-to-B interfaces together that will seriously lower the cost of delivering services together across our combined value chain to our mutual customers."

Creating, delivering and monetizing content and digital media services are creating new demands on business models and operations, says the Forums. Together, they says they will address these demands and work with their respective members to address real, bottom-line-affecting issues.

The collaboration of these two organizations will ensure the solutions span the entire value chain. Over the longer term, the TM Forum and MEF will look at the bigger picture of lowering the cost of rolling out content and media services across mobile networks. The aim of this long-term view will be to stimulate the ability of different players to effectively trade together in an automated fashion and grow the overall market by enabling new joint market approaches.