The non-terrestrial network economy is extraordinary commercial opportunity for those who prepare now, just as the competion really starts to heat up
Non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) refer to just about any network not on the ground. They are incredibly complex – a sophisticated mixture of ingenious deep tech innovation and complicated platform hardware which harnesses spaceborne and airborne elements to extend connectivity to the hardest-to-reach places on Earth.
The theme of this article though is business growth. The nascent NTN economy represents extraordinary commercial opportunity for those who get themselves in the vanguard of progress now – just as the competitive NTN landscape really starts to heat up.
Three key pieces of advice
I’m sharing three key bits of NTN advice for players in the global telecoms and satellite world who are eager to unlock vast new revenues. One, collaborate as widely and effectively as you can – no-one can hope to navigate the tricky non-terrestrial journey on their own. Two, get yourself at the debating table, or as close as possible to it, to help define standards that will shape the industry. Three, understand how tough it will be to overcome a host of crucial challenges – not least vexed issues like interoperability and system integration.
My NTN perspective has been broadened and stimulated by working with Cambridge Consultants colleagues on our whitepaper: Assembling rebel alliances to compete in the new NTN economy. Time and time again we reflected on the benefits of collaboration.
The NTN ecosystem is partly characterised by an amalgam of industries, technologies, standards and regulations that are converging from conventional ground-based cellular networks and satellite systems. No single business can hope to take a solo run at making such a transformative leap into the future from such legacy activities.
Instead, powerful partnerships will form between satellite operators and vendors, network owners, broadband providers, IoT experts and many more to enable shared infrastructure, R&D and the delivery of new levels of service. Strategic partnerships across the value chain will be instrumental in propelling progress while minimising risk.
Power of ecosytems
As the industry becomes saturated with competitors – and the skies get ever busier – savvy players will be allying themselves with partners to create a network of satellite operators, high altitude platform (HAP) providers, terrestrial network operators and technology vendors. This is the way to drive the successful deployment and operation of NTNs that can address the diverse needs of the market – at pace. Â
We’re already seeing such relationships. An example is the partnership between Amazon Kuiper and Verizon. They are working together to extend 4G/LTE and 5G services to rural areas across the US through a network of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, profiting from the integration of Kuiper’s satellite capabilities with Verizon’s terrestrial network.
This partnership also allowed Verizon to support Amazon in navigating the complex regulatory environment of existing telecoms, meaning all organisations could bring their expertise and resources together to achieve their goals faster. Â
Then there’s OneWeb’s partnership with Hughes Network Systems, leveraging Hughes’ expertise in satellite ground network technology alongside OneWeb’s satellite constellation to improve connectivity, reach and service quality of their low-latency broadband services.
This not only expanded OneWeb’s market reach by capitalising on Hughes’ customer base and distribution channels, but also hugely accelerated technological innovation thanks to a joint effort around R&D.
Finding the right partners
How to find the right partner? There’s lots to consider, but a good start is to seek alliances with those who share an ultimate vision but can advise on areas where a business has gaps. This alignment and balance of expertise drives progress towards a shared goal, fortified and improved by mutual strengths that can address new use cases and segments of the market.
My key takeaway is this: in a vast, competitive and fast-moving ecosystem, you’re stronger working as a team. I believe strategic, mutually beneficial partnerships will become perhaps the most valuable assets as the market evolves rapidly.
Evolving standards
Now let’s turn to evolving standards – and the crucial importance of understanding, influencing and innovating on this future-defining stage. Conversations are happening right now, offering the chance to guide the direction of travel for the industry in space.
Here, the convergence of lower launch costs, significant advances in deep tech and the dramatic increase of satellites in LEO have sparked a transformation. Major players like SpaceX, with its Starlink constellation, have led the charge. The market is on track to reach $124.6 billion in annual satellite services revenue by the decade’s end.
In fact, from the end of 2022 to mid-2024 alone the total number of satellites launched and in orbit has risen from 6,905 to 9,900, an increase of 43% in 18 months. This increasingly competitive environment makes the race to market success ever more urgent – particularly as new regulations and policies are put into place to manage the sudden rise in satellite activity.
Standards such as 3GPP, which include guidelines for NTNs alongside spectrum governance and air and space regulations, represent both the start and finish line of any project. You can’t begin without making sure you’re aware of the approved framework, and your success will be limited unless your service complies.
That said, these standards can’t be a reason to halt innovation. Coordinating with international regulatory bodies, and indeed other partners who may have expertise or resources that you don’t, is the only way to create harmonised systems that can facilitate the seamless integration of NTNs worldwide and promote global interoperability. But the way you apply them remains down to you.
Standards are not a blueprint
After all, these standards are not a blueprint for implementation. It remains your choice how you implement them, leaving you free to turn them into an opportunity for differentiation and make them work for you. If harnessed creatively and collaboratively, these standards can unlock the full potential of NTNs and drive the next wave of connectivity innovation ahead of the competition.
This standardisation marks a change for the satellite industry where previously proprietary standards and technology choices have dominated. In this standards-led ecosystem, new ways will need to be found to differentiate and innovate within a standard framework. And in this new, crowded marketplace, the traditional go-it-alone strategy is far less viable than it once was.
Tough ride
My final point is to be prepared for a tough ride. In mobile comms, the challenges of physical implementation – from radio waves and antennas to propagation – are hard enough on the ground. Adding the space dimension introduces a whole new complexity where these two worlds collide.
But along with the risk comes huge potential reward. Down the line, there’s no doubt that the NTN ecosystem offers an opportunity for true market dominance. There simply isn’t enough space in space for everyone, so the big winners will be the platform owners who can create a satellite model not just for their constellation, but for everyone else’s. Yes, the sky is the limit.
About the author
Stewart Marsh (pictured above) is Head of Aerospace at Cambridge Consultants, part of Capgemini Invent and known as the deep tech powerhouse of Capgemini. With more than 20 years’ experience in aerospace and telecoms, Stewart helps companies achieve technology breakthroughs that unlock transformative business value, including a world-first Push-to-Talk satellite service and a beyond visual line-of-sight UAV solution using low-power satellite technology.