Frequency issues, time to market and even technology may appear to give cellular network operators the jump on mobile WiMax, but ultimately it will come down to the services available, and consumer decisions, Priscilla Awde hears.
As the new ‘kid on the block' the 802.16e standard or mobile WiMax is causing a stir. Most discussions about its ability to compete with or complement the GSM juggernaut, its place in the market, or role as a 4G technology tend to raise heated debate between supporters and sceptics of each technology.
Yet the future of broadband mobile multimedia services will likely be settled by consumers and whether they want high-speed access on the move. If people flock to anytime, anywhere, any device multimedia services, WiMax proponents believe it will cause cellular network overload and HSDPA will fail.
In three to four years people will expect broadband connectivity wherever they go says Graham Currier, business development director at Pipex Wireless. "The personal broadband market is opening up and providing choices breaking the closed shop stranglehold of GSM. WiMax will appear and customers will decide – it has to live and die on services supplied to multiple devices over multiple technologies.
"The spin against WiMax is because it handles VoIP – it can do the same as GSM only more."
Predicting mass demand many big players support 802.16e: Intel, a prime mover, is due to integrate WiMax chips into laptops next summer. Nortel, ZTE and Alcatel Lucent are developing products; Motorola, Nokia and Samsung among others have announced devices for early 2008. All are spurred by the USA's Sprint Nextel/ClearWire national mobile WiMax network due for commercial launch at the start of 2008.
Devices/handsets are expected to be slick units with large screens designed for video/data. Nokia is introducing high-end multimedia tablets early 2008; by 2009 laptops and devices will be multi-band/multi-technology. With chip sets expected last quarter 2007, WiMax can be integrated into cheap and numerous consumer electronic equipment. "Devices are optimised for internet access," explains Sebastian Nystrom, director, technology strategy for Nokia. "The opportunities for WiMax are to offer internet services as a truly personal mobile experience; to change the way people use the internet and to make it more mobile."
Base stations are available and networks are being built with more expected in 2008 as fixed/nomadic CPE is launched.
Kevin Jones, business development director at Intel says although it is early days for .16e there are many European trials, test bed activities, interoperability testing and certification. "Intel's goal is to put WiMax into all notebooks and into mobile internet devices. Operators are less technology/radio specific; many senior executives just want the best access system for users. We are starting to see huge traction and scepticism is turning to support. Countries without 3G are up and running with .16e and we are seeing deployments. "
Most networks will be in urban areas and rival WiFi hot spots by delivering higher speeds and wider coverage from base stations.
Mobile operators are keeping a close eye on .16e hoping perhaps to influence how the standard evolves: some have built fixed WiMax networks. Vodafone recently joined the WiMax Forum and is involved in fixed WiMax deployments in Malta and France which may upgrade to .16e. Along with content owners, fixed telcos are Forum members: those without mobile arms may see .16e as a way of offering broadband data services – so too may new entrants and operators without 3G licences.
There are WiMax deployments throughout Europe where telcos have national 3.5GHz licences – many will upgrade to .16e when equipment is commercially available. In France SFR and Neuf Cegetel joint venture Societe Haut Debit (SHD), is building a WiMax network offering fixed/nomadic connections and DBD is building in Germany.
John Delaney, principal analyst at Ovum believes the stronger GSM is the more likely LTE, its 4G standard, will win out. "WiMax is more an internet type technology – an open internet model where users can do whatever they want, unlike GSM where operators/vendors control access. Although it won't supplant 3G, WiMax is a serious technology and will be important in areas without any legacy or GSM."
Telcos are consolidating systems and moving towards one IP infrastructure for core and access networks. "WiMax base stations are future proof, more flexible and .16e is designed to use the most advanced radio for IP communications," says Andy McKinnon, WiMax principal, Motorola. "Operators looking for a migration path will implement .16e or have to wait a couple of years for LTE during which time WiMax will have been operational."
Having built a national fixed WiMax network and already offering nomadic services, Irish Broadband is waiting for CPE to add mobility. "HSPA will slow down significantly when it attracts high numbers and will need to roam onto WiMax for capacity and vice versa so agreements must be made," believes CEO Neil Parkinson.
"The big issue is getting products certified by the WiMax Forum. Equipment is coming out towards year end but will the labs be able to certify it fast enough?"
Juniper Research believes HSPA will dominate network deployments over the next five years consistently accounting for around 70% of the total subscriber base until 2012. Mobile WiMax will achieve a single digit percent proportion of the global subscriber base by then but grow substantially after 2012 as new networks are built and applications adopted.
Frequency availability and allocation are potential problems with regulations varying by country. Few want to replicate the high prices paid for 3G licences and some are lobbying for technology neutral licences. The ITU is reviewing the situation. European regulators may let licences in the 2.5-2.6GHz range starting in 2008/09 – in Britain Ofcom has announced plans. "Ofcom may auction licences selling to the highest bidders some of whom may buy and block WiMax by sitting on spectrum. In Eire the regulator requires people to use spectrum or lose it," says Parkinson.
There are discussions about making analogue TV frequencies available once it is turned off.
Many European operators have national 3.5GHz licences whereas Americans use 2.5GHz frequencies making it difficult to standardise equipment between regions.
Mike Short, VP R&D at the O2 Group suggests such unpredictability is detrimental: "In Europe there is no consistent approach and the Forum has promoted many different bands which causes confusion: the characteristics differ for each frequency. In Britain 3.5GHz is licensed, 2.5GHz is not yet complete and 5GHz is unlicensed and can take any technology. Without stable adopted standards there will be investor uncertainty making it more difficult to build a business case.
"Currently WiFi is a Cinderella service and WiMax is less than that. Cellular operators have a broad supplier base which generates R&D and innovation not available to new technologies. Authentication and security issues need to be addressed for mass WiMax deployments but in the long term it is logical there will be dual mode GSM/WiMax devices."
Sceptics doubt .16e will be anything more than a niche technology supplying fill-in or to increase teledensities in developing regions. Yet in many countries GSM subscriptions are growing exponentially fuelled by network rollout and cheap handsets: in India alone some six million subscribers were added each month for the past year.
Others say it is nonsensical to decry mobile WiMax which is based on the same Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM), as next generation GSM/CDMA standards.
However 802.16e is fundamentally different from HSPA which is here now and attracting subscribers as tariffs fall and handsets/content become available. Believing demand can be satisfied by HSPA, mobile operators needing a return on investment cannot justify building entirely new networks. Capacity pressures on macro-networks may be reduced by femtocells, picocells and Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC), which divert in-building mobile traffic through the fixed infrastructure perhaps delaying the need for 4G.
The scale of the global installed base of three billion and growing cellular subscribers, combined with R&D of some of the world's biggest equipment providers/operators; relatively cheap tariffs and devices may damage the business case for .16e. "Today there are more than 260 HSPA terminal devices commercially available and close to 200 HSPA networks launched or proposed. All the main vendors are working on HSPA's evolution," explains Gabriel Solomon, senior VP public policy at the GSM Association. "Terminals are wider in range and cheaper than mobile WiMax. HSPA+ will leverage existing 3G infrastructure. In terms of capacity, HSPA+ will always have an inherent advantage. In a few years when mobile WiMax starts to roll out in earnest, HSPA+ will be at scale with much lower end-to-end costs."
Time-to-market affects the .16e business case. Past experience shows it takes around six years from setting standards to mass deployments putting mobile WiMax on track for 2010/11 and HSPA in 2008. Mikael Halen, director, government/industry relations at Ericsson suggests: "Industry estimates indicate by 2011 there will be 30 million mobile WiMax subscribers compared to 600 million HSPA users and, in the next four years, over one billion HSPA devices will be sold. The main differentiators between HSPA and WiMax are scale and timing: HSPA is already in the market and is an incremental network build-out whereas mobile WiMax is a brand new network deployment."
However European operators may use .16e to leapfrog to 4G since LTE is moving slowly. "There is a huge amount of money going into WiMax and LTE – who knows what the future holds," asks Ajay Gupta, Aricent's VP of wireless convergence. "WiMax is starting to pick up especially for operators who missed out on 3G licences. Operators aren't here to sell technology but services and if demand can only be met via WiMax they will go with that."
Mobile operators are deciding how best to provide successful broadband applications. In future they want open IP architectures; superior radio technology; smart antennae and MIMO which, according to Rudy Leser, corporate VP, strategy marketing at Alvarion, are elements of WiMax now. "Future technologies will be those which most cost effectively deliver services to customers – there will be a number of technologies with seamless horizontal roaming between networks. There is a negative reaction to .16e in Europe where GSM is strong and driven by vendors.
"The LTE standard is not defined and not a single piece of equipment can be reused so CDMA/3G networks are not compatible with 4G. Mobile WiMax is 4G already – the only difference between WiMax and 4G is that .16e will be here in 2008."
Ultimately people want fast, cheap access to services wherever they are and any technology will fail if it cannot deliver. "WiMax has proven itself to be more spectral friendly so, for operators with limited available spectrum, it may be more cost effective than 3G. But what services might people want on WiMax that cannot be supplied by 3G?" asks Bettina Tratz-Ryan, VP at Gartner.