Dell’Oro says for the 5G MCN and MEC market segments, the EMEA region is projected to have the highest CAGR rate and China the lowest
Given the money flying into the data centre industry right now, the mobile industry could be forgiven for thinking they have become the stars of yesteryear. According to a newly published forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market 5-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) (2024-2029) remains in negative territory. Economic headwinds, competitive price pressure, and slow migration to 5G Standalone (5G SA) and Voice over New Radio (VoNR) plague the market.
“The only bright spots are the segments that will grow during the forecast period. They are the EMEA region, 5G MCN, and MEC. However, these segments are not growing enough to offset the decline in the 4G MCN and VoLTE/VoNR market segments,” said Dell’Oro research director Dave Bolan. “The MCN market is projected to peak in 2025 and slide lower throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Unfortunately, it is a bleak outlook.”
He added: “Only eight new 5G SA eMBB networks were launched in 2024, bringing the total to an estimated 61 launched by MNOs in 34 countries.”
Bolan said the 5G SA market, which is the growth driver for the market, has had difficulty finding the right path to scale the market dramatically upward. “New hope is being promoted with 5G-Advanced networks, common application programmable interfaces (APIs), non-terrestrial networks (NTN), artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), and the newest Generative AI and Agentic AI,” he said “MNOs are exploring all these options, but it could be difficult because investment capital is going into AI data centres and semiconductors supporting AI. It remains to be seen if MNOs can compete for investment dollars.”
The CAGR is negative for all technology segments—packet core, policy, signalling, subscriber data management, and IMS core – in the MCN market. For the 5G MCN and MEC market segments, the EMEA region is projected to have the highest CAGR rate, and China the lowest.
RAN stabilises and FWA shines
Core aside, Dell’Oro delivered slightly better news for the RAN market in 2025, Global RAN revenues are expected to hold steady, with 5–10% growth anticipated outside China, driven by improved conditions in India, Japan, and North America. Private wireless RAN revenues – albeit a small part of the market – are forecast to grow over 20%, fuelled by robust adoption in manufacturing and industrial verticals.
Surprisingly, Open RAN is poised for “rapid growth”, says Dell’Oro, potentially accounting for 8–10% of total RAN revenues. But as with the core market, monetization struggles and slowed 5G expansion remain significant obstacles for operators, even as regional markets show uneven recovery.
One further bright spot is the rise of fixed wireless access in the product mix. Preliminary findings suggest total FWA revenues, including RAN equipment, residential CPE, and enterprise router and gateway revenue remain on track to advance 7% in 2024, driven largely by residential subscriber growth in North America and India, as well as growing branch office connectivity more globally.