The analyst house forecasts 6G RAN market will be worth $30bn in 2033, with sub-7GHz and cmWave macros dominating the mix
According to a new 6G report by Dell’Oro Group, after 40 50 50% revenue growth in RAN equipment between 2017 and 2021, it is now facing a second year of steep decline. The pace of decline is expected to moderate after this year but the analyst house thinks that “downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality”.
In the meantime, Dell’Oro expects RAN revenues to trend downward until 2029 before 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 billion by 2033. By that point, sub-7 GHz and cmWave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix.
The research found that in addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30 or more years, the hype around 5G and its failure to alter operators’ flat revenues are fuelling increased skepticism among them regarding further substantial investments in new technologies.
“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group.
“Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market.
“However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.
Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers an overview of the RAN market by region and by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for 5G NR and 6G by frequency, including Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, and mmWave. The report also covers Cloud RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO.