The seeming obsession with smartphones and their operating systems reflected market realities, says Tony Dennis
There's little doubt that the mobile OS landscape in 2008 has been dominated by three open source foundations – the Symbian Foundation (SF), Open Handset Alliance (OHA), and the Linux in Mobile Foundation (LiMo). Publicity-wise, Google has been highly successful with its first Android OS handset – the G1. Similarly Apple has remained centre stage with the release of the iPhone 3G and its associated touchscreen UI (User Interface). These four have by no means won the fight. RIM and Microsoft carry on selling into the business market; and even the Palm OS hasn't disappeared entirely thanks to the Centro. The losers, however, are UIQ (swallowed by the Symbian Foundation) and Danger (which became part of Microsoft in 2008).
Figures
The current obsession with smartphones – and their associated OS and applications – has a solid basis in market realities. According to Malik Kamal Saadi, a principal analyst with Informa Telecoms, the growth in value of the mobile phone market will be driven by the smartphone segment, which will see double-digit growth right up until 2013. By contrast, non-smartphones will register almost at zero growth until 2011. Consequently, the value of the global smartphone market will grow from almost $39 billion in 2007 to more than $95 billion in 2013. Saadi maintains, "The mobile handset industry is also turning its interest to open source which promises vendors a reduction in, or the elimination of, royalties related to terminal (OS) software."
G1/Google/OHA
Perhaps the most important event in 2008 from a mobile OS standpoint was when Google and the Open Handset Alliance were finally able to deliver on their promises. The first ever Android phone – the G1 – started shipping in October. One reason for the G1's significance was that its manufacturer i – HTC – had made its name with Windows Mobile based products. Importantly, the G1 was launched by a Top Tier European mobile operator, T-Mobile, rather than a small bit player. Also significantly it meant that the Android Market – Google's answer to the Apple iTunes App Store- could finally swing into action. A cornerstone's of Android philosophy is that the whole open software community will swing behind the OS and start creating the kind of apps which both business and consumers really want.
Adam Leach, principal analyst with Ovum, pointed out that with just one commercial launch under its belt, Android has yet to show just how competitive it will prove to be in 2009. "That'll be the true litmus test when we see which network operators decide to launch with LiMo and which pick Android," he said. Given the strength of support for Android from handset vendors besides HTC, however, the OS is more likely to be judged more on how successful Android Market is, rather than how good the G1 handset is by itself.
An interesting view on the arrival of mobile apps markets was provided by James Parton, head of the Litmus initiative with O2. He commented, "Opening an apps store has become the new mobile vogue. But for O2 it misses something fundamental – the collaboration of customer and developers with the network operator." Parton argues that O2's recently launched Litmus initiative will take full advantage of the user and developer communities themselves – not just the ideas of the industry. "Quicker, better, and innovative mobile apps that can be tried and used in days, not months, will propel Mobile 2.0 into the next generation, not another apps store," he predicted.
iPhone 3G/Apple
The fact that the G1 is a touchscreen handset illustrates the influence which the Apple iPhone continues to wield even though its actual sales figures aren't awe inspiring. 2008 saw the introduction of the iPhone 3G which fixed the handset's most glaring flaw – a lack of high speed cellular connectivity. Undeniably the handset lays out the facilities that constituted a leading-edge smartphone today. In addition to a touchscreen UI, it should have support for both 3G and Wi-Fi plus GPS. Sophisticated support for both email and web surfing are also a given but the launch of the iTunes App Store set an industry precedent. The Store illustrates what a tight rein Apple exerts over its developers as Apple dictating what apps can and cannot be sold via the Store. It remains to be seen how well Apple's OTA synchronisation service – MobileMe (described as "Microsoft Exchange for the rest of us"), will do.
Two major smartphones, the HTC Diamond and the Samsung Omnia SGH-i900, both employ touchscreen interfaces and should therefore be viewed as a direct response to Apple's iPhone. Windows Mobile is still heavily dependent on the use of a stylus for its touchscreen capability rather than being "finger accessible" as Geoff Blaber, principal analyst with CCS Insight terms it. Even with the G1's arrival, Apple still has the lead in having a 'double-touch' capability for controlling handset features such as manipulating video while viewing.
Windows Mobile
Significantly, both the Diamond and the Omnia have responded to the iPhone's impressive Internet surfing capabilities by using Opera's browser. That is curious considering both are Windows Mobile based and should have been using the Mobile Explorer browser. Microsoft's EMEA Enterprise manager, Roderick van der Graaf, revealed that a new version of the Explorer browser is on its way in 2009.
Although Windows 6.1 launched in early 2008, Microsoft made much greater play of the launch by Sony Ericsson of its first ever Windows Mobile device – the Xperia X1. That meant that four out of the five biggest global handset vendors now offer at least one handset using the Windows Mobile OS. Given that both Android and Symbian are going to effectively become 'free', this will put pressure on handset vendors who have to pay Microsoft's licence fee to utilise the Windows OS. "The situation with Windows Mobile is that the pricing [for licences] has always been somewhat opaque – especially compared to Symbian,"suggested Ovum's Adam Leach. He says that Microsoft's pricing "has varied depending on the OEM; what volumes are expected to be and which market niche the handset vendor has been attacking." Leach explained. Microsoft might decide to offer a royalty-free licence until the vendor hits certain production volumes, Leach suggested.
In response to pricing criticism, Microsoft's Roderick van der Graaf, told Mobile Europe that handset purchasers should look at the total cost of ownership (TCO). While Windows handsets might initially cost more to purchase, they have hidden benefits thanks to Windows Mobile's close integration with other Microsoft products, he says. Van der Graaf gave as a good example push email. Support for push email is a standard part of Microsoft's Exchange mail server. This means that Exchange users don't have to pay extra for push email – a comment which is obviously a dig at arch rival – RIM.Van de Graaf also highlighted a new trend in mobile software which his company likes to refer to as 'Beyond email'. This is a reference to business-to business (B2B) applications.
LiMo
Compared to Android which kicked off with only the one handset, by August 2008 the LiMo Foundation had gone past the 20 handset mark. The most significant event, however, was when the Linux Phone Standards (LiPS) Forum folded itself into the LiMo Foundation in July. This ended a split within the Linux community and polarised participants towards two camps instead of three. Significantly, LiMo's CEO, Morgan Gillis believes the two camps can happily co-exist. "As an organisation, we welcome the launch of the G1 device using Google's Android platform," Gillis said. "We believe that the G1 provides further support to the view that Linux is now positioned to become the most widely deployed OS within open mobile handsets."
Describing the essential difference between the two OS platforms, Andrew Shikiar, director of Global Marketing with LiMo explained that – unlike Android, the LiMo platform does not specify the UI and application layer. Additionally, since the LiMo platform is 'hardware neutral' he claims that makes it suitable for a broader range of markets. "In the competitive mobile industry of today, micro-segmentation is essential. Therefore, there is a need for multiple but reasonable numbers of operating systems because one solution does not fit all," Shikiar argued. He also suggested that applications can be easily ported from the PC to the mobile environment given that the LiMo platform shares APIs with the desktop solutions. "It's next year [2009] that we'll see the real battle particularly between the Google Android and the LiMo Foundation camps as to which flavour of mobile Linux will win out," added Ovum's Adam Leach.
Symbian Foundation
Nokia's effective annexation of the Symbian OS through the Symbian Foundation was major news in June 2008. The intention is to convert the whole of Series 60, UIQ, and NTT DocoMo's MOAP over to open source. The event lost its shock value given that it is widely seen as a knee-jerk reaction to Android. Much the same as the 5800 is seen as Nokia's answer to the iPhone. Some industry watchers were surprised that the Symbian Foundation didn't make a significant announcement at the Smartphone Show in October. However, Adam Leach, observed, "There's no stalling with the progress of the Symbian Foundation. Right from the beginning they acknowledged it would take time." He maintains that the Foundation is still on target to get up and running by Q3-Q4 2009. "There's a holding pattern at the moment with a licensee like Japan's NTT DoCoMo still launching handsets based around its own FOMA/MOAPS platform."
UIQ
A massive question mark hangs over the survival of UIQ as an independent UI for the Symbian sector especially since UIQ gave six months' notice to all employees in November. Adam Leach, suggested that, "The reality with UIQ was that [even though Motorola bought into UIQ], UIQ based handsets featured less and less on both its, and Sony Ericsson's, handset roadmaps." Leach argued that with the advent of the Symbian Foundation there was a natural transition in the Symbian UI away from UIQ towards a more flexible version of the Series 60 UI instead. Asked if the mobile industry had become too obsessed with touch screen interfaces, Johan Sandberg, CEO at UIQ Technology, replied, "There will most likely be a continued and increased interest for touch screen user interfaces. The need for personalisation will remain and by saying that – the need for diversified input methods will also remain, be refined and expanded in 2009."
Palm/Danger
The Palm OS isn't quite dead yet as it is still employed in the Palm Centro – probably because adding in the cost of a Windows licence would have made the handset less price competitive. However, Palm helped to position Windows Mobile against Blackberry with the launch of the Treo Pro. CCS Insight's Geoff Blaber also pointed out that even at the launch of the Treo Pro, the company wouldn't rule out a Linux based handset.
When Microsoft took control of Danger in February 2008, its distinctive UI effectively disappeared. Danger has become part of Microsoft's Premium Mobile Experience division. However, rumourmongers have postulated the creation of Microsoft's own branded handset – the supposed Zunephone. Going from the Zune MP3 player to a mobile handset would mimic exactly Apple's progression from the iPod to the iPhone. Danger's technology could possibly be involved in such a plot.
Java
Everybody seems to be ignoring the continued dependence on Java – especially by the mobile entertainment sector. "Java is certainly no better controlled on handsets than it was before. And now there is Android, Windows Mobile, Symbian, N-Gage, iPhone, Brew and LiMo," argued Tony Pearce, CEO with Player X. "Will Google set out to control Android implementation on devices in a way that Sun never did? It's doubtful. So we'll end up with another platform which is not compatible with similar handsets." But it's not all doom and gloom, said Pearce, pointing to porting solutions such as ExpressSuite from Javaground which enables Java code to be converted to Brew automatically. In 2009 it should handle the iPhone and Windows Mobile, too.
So, 2008 saw its fair share of winners and losers across the sector. But 2009 looks set to be a straight fight between the new-found 'open' OS vendors.
