The gloves are off in the mobile broadband arena, with WiMAX and HSDPA ready to slug it out for dominance of a potentially lucrative market. Priscilla Awde takes a look at the contenders and their chances of victory
A battle royal is shaping up in the telecoms market driven largely by the hype surrounding the new disruptive broadband wireless technology, WiMAX. Although it has the support of some of the biggest equipment manufacturers, WiMAX is set to compete head-on with various fixed line architectures and with established 3G operators backing High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), as the next network upgrade path.
Based on different underlying technologies, both WiMAX and HSDPA terminate traffic at megabit speeds on portable and eventually mobile devices, while improving performance and reducing costs by using wireless spectrum more efficiently. The question is whether there is room for both HSDPA and WiMAX or whether the critical mass already achieved by cellular operators will limit WiMAX to niche markets or as a means for fixed operators to add mobility.
Undoubtedly all major telcos are looking at WiMAX but to succeed it must compete against established technologies with easier upgrade paths and in which significant investments have already been made.
Developed from the older broadband fixed wireless access technology, WiMAX is interesting because different iterations of the IEEE 802.16 standard are designed for fixed (802.16d), and mobile (802.16e to be specified), networks. However, this wide ranging appeal could prove its downfall as it potentially addresses too many diverse applications and may lose its focus.
Amongst the more extravagant claims are that WiMAX supports data rates up to 70Mbps but, depending on the application, user experience is more commonly assessed at between 2-10Mbps.
Already WiMAX is evolving to carry high quality Voice-over-Internet-Protocol (VoIP), traffic so fixed line operators could be seduced by opportunities to offer mobile services in urban areas. Yet early deployments are unlikely to be able to compete either with the voice quality or the mass market already achieved by mobile operators. However adding voice to high speed data brings WiMAX into direct competition with 3G cellular systems which will be the real battleground for 802.16.
Fundamentally different
Based on Orthagonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM), WiMAX is a fundamentally different and new modulation scheme currently requiring new network build which immediately makes it a technology for competitive telcos or for those wanting access to new markets. Whilst WiMAX improves interference protection and supports higher throughput and therefore cost effective service delivery, existing mobile operators have already spent considerable amounts on building 3G networks and are therefore unlikely to invest again. It is easier for them to use HSDPA to upgrade their networks, increase capacity and speeds and achieve similar performance, economy and efficiency.
Most of the current debate is largely driven by silicon chip giant Intel which plans to incorporate WiMAX 802.16e into next generation lap top computers.
“The specification will be complete mid-2005 with products to follow in 2006, ramping up in 2007 for notebooks,” says Jim Johnson, Intel’s VP Mobility Group. “Putting 802.16e in city towers adds capacity for notebooks and PDAs. Mobile operators selling 3G want better data performance and can use the WiMAX specification transparently.
“The unique selling points for WiMAX are that it is easy to deploy and is based on IEEE standards so thousands of developers and engineers can create services. WiMAX will take off in similar ways to WiFi and Ethernet but equipment and subscription costs must be low. Every PC ships with Ethernet connections and soon all will incorporate WiFi and then WiMAX.”
Despite its very public backing of WiMAX, Intel is ultimately technology agnostic and therefore likely to support winning architectures including High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA).
As an evolutionary step needing only software upgrades to move from third to fourth generation W-CDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access), networks, HSDPA is the logical choice for mobile operators. Using existing equipment and spectrum it increases the efficiency of downlink connections and the profitability of delivering multimedia content at high speeds. Expected in 2007, Enhanced UpLink (EUL), increases speeds and performance in the return path. As happened with the initial 3G launches, HSDPA will start with data cards for laptops and migrate to handsets as demand grows.
The first European HSDPA services are expected in 2006, although Japanese operators are expected to launch this year. Announced delays in specifying the 802.16e WiMAX standard and introducing equipment may ultimately affect its success. Fully mobile WiMAX services are not likely until at least the end of 2007 although services terminating on ‘nomadic’ or portable devices should be available earlier. However, by then HSDPA will have been launched for over a year and, if operators’ plans materialise, will already be supporting significant numbers of subscribers.
Believing customers care less about networks and more about convenience and cost, Alan Harper, Vodafone’s group strategy director nevertheless debates the merits of the different technologies. “HSDPA is an evolutionary step on the W-CDMA path and most major suppliers expect to launch early in 2006. Where does WiMAX fit? By the time it is commercially deployed in 2008, the first stage of HSPDA will have been rolled out delivering to customers at 1.5-2Mbps; then up to 4Mbps and between 10-12Mbps in the third stage,” he says.
“WiMAX and OFDM are more of a step change which can be built perhaps into the evolution of mobile architectures. They have potential in local access networks (base stations to devices), where an OFDM card could slot into existing base stations and antennae or become entirely new systems. There is a continual evolution of network technologies and a need to balance between actual customer demand and the business case.”
HSDPA, EUL and WiMAX 802.16e all improve the customer experience as well as the economics of delivering broadband mobile services. Although HSDPA and WiMAX are fundamentally different technologies it is likely both will have a place if operators are to maximise throughput, increase spectrum efficiency and meet the expected explosion in demand for broadband mobile capacity. Critical mass and easy upgrades make HSDPA and EUL the easy upgrade path for W-CDMA networks but mobile operators may turn to WiMAX for backhaul and redundancy.
Affected by WiMAX
It is not only the mobile sector which will be affected by WiMAX as the 802.16d version of the standard is a fixed broadband wireless technology capable of competing with Digital Subscriber Line (DSL), and cable. However, the falling costs of interconnect and of fixed line technologies combined with increasing functionality make last mile services in developed countries very competitive. Fixed operators with access to licensed 2.5-3.5GHz spectrum could use WiMAX to deliver up to 10Mbps symmetrical speeds in the last mile or for fixed/mobile convergence but most believe its applications will be limited to developing countries and niche markets.
Dave Murashige, VP of carrier strategic marketing at Nortel suggests 802.16d will create economies of scale making it a worthwhile alternative to DSL in niche sectors. “Fixed operators will look at 802.16d for wireless and to plan for 802.16e. Operators need to add functionality making the same dollar buy more speed, applications and features. The big battle now is to support cheap multi-megabit connectivity to any device.”
There is insatiable demand for broadband connectivity and low cost equipment in developing countries where wireless networks can be built anywhere regardless of geography. 802.16d also has applications in greenfield sites; for new entrants by-passing the public switched network or to backhaul fixed and mobile trunk traffic: all markets where it will compete directly with established global, two-way, broadband satellite systems.
Already supporting unlimited capacity in the downward path and megabit return speeds, satellite operators supply fully managed end-to-end, high-speed global IP networks. The emerging DVB-RCS (Digital Video Broadcast-Return Channel Satellite), standard combined with smaller dishes, bigger spot beams, frequency re-use and economies of scale are reducing overall costs.
Whether WiMAX 802.16d competes or co-exists with satellites and fixed alternatives depends largely on competitive price/performance ratios and confidence in the standard.
Amrish Kacker, senior consultant at Analysys questions the WiMAX business case suggesting the fixed version will first be established in developing countries which have stopped building copper networks and then spill over into mature markets. On the mobile front, he believes: “Cellular operators could get into WiMAX to send data over another network, to expand capacity and avoid clogging up existing networks. Linked with WiFi networks in buildings, WiMAX could provide numerous broadband connections for homes and offices from one provider as well as portable data services. The end user business proposition in developed countries is not entirely clear.”
Bruno Potdevin, VP business development/marketing at Alcatel predicts WiMAX will move from niche to mainstream technology driven by savvy end users demanding always-on, high-speed broadband connectivity everywhere. “The next step is to combine broadband at home with mobility. Incumbents are moving to WiMAX for local loop services to give users symmetrical access. There will be a WiMAX connection to homes with in-building traffic dispersed via WiFi. Adoption rates depend on price which must be between DSL and GSM.”