WiMax a five year niche solution, report finds

The GSMA has published a report from Arthur D Little that strongly backs the GSM/ WCDMA/ HSDPA evolution path over WiMax.
The report’s findings included the opinion that HSPA will account for the majority of mobile broadband networks worldwide over the next five years. The paper also found that:
“Mobile WiMax will be a niche technology over this period, as it will only be a competitive technology for operators to deploy in a limited number of circumstances where conditions are favourable
 “In the long term, mobile broadband wireless systems will be characterised by technologies, such as OFDMA and MIMO, whose development is being actively pursued throughout the industry and are part of the evolution path for both WiMax and 3GPP
“While first generation mobile WiMax systems are expected to achieve significantly greater data transfer rates than today’s HSPA networks (theoretical peak data rates of e.g. 16.8 Mbps in urban areas vs. around 10 Mbps for HSPA in the same 5MHz channel bandwidth), mobile WiMax cells supporting these higher data rates will tend to be notably smaller, at only one half to a quarter the cell radius of the equivalent HSPA cell
“To build a mobile WiMax network capable of achieving the same effective data transfer rates as an HSPA network would cost about 20-50% more in CAPEX
“Early generation mobile WiMax systems have less voice traffic capacity than 3G/HSPA networks, limiting the size of their potential market and the scope of user needs they can address and hence the revenues and returns they will be able to generate. Early mobile WiMax systems also cannot support the same level of mobility as HSPA networks as their core OFDMA technology is more prone to inter-channel interference from Doppler shifts caused by the rapid movement of user terminals.”
The report’s findings will of course be of comfort to the GSMA’s own members, the cast majority of whom have no plans for WiMax roll-outs.
One senior source at a WiMax equipment vendor Mobile Europe spoke to disputed the findings made by Arthur D Little. “I’d agree that WiMax offers much higher bandwidth than HSPA,” he said, “but to criticise it for having less voice capacity is to misunderstand the business case for WiMax.”